Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Trinidad and Tobago: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Trinidad and Tobago's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.95 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.1bn | 2025 (3.33) |
Latest observed5.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.38 | 22.18 | -11.43 | 1.86 – 8.89 |
| 2028 | 6.13 | 30 | -22.98 | -0.1 – 12.37 |
| 2030 | 6.89 | 30 | -30 | -1.33 – 15.11 |
| 2035 | 8.77 | 30 | -30 | -3.48 – 21.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.11· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.7bn | 31bn | 21bn | 24.6bn – 26.7bn |
| 2028 | 25.3bn | 34.6bn | 17.2bn | 23bn – 27.6bn |
| 2030 | 24.9bn | 36.9bn | 14.5bn | 21.5bn – 28.3bn |
| 2035 | 23.9bn | 40.9bn | 9.2bn | 18.1bn – 29.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1bntypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.95 | 6.75 | -7.62 | -2.25 – 0.35 |
| 2028 | -1.25 | 12 | -10 | -3.54 – 1.03 |
| 2030 | -1.56 | 12 | -10 | -4.55 – 1.43 |
| 2035 | -2.32 | 12 | -10 | -6.75 – 2.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.2· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.15typical miss · 1 realized · 574% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.8k | 22.7k | 15.3k | 18k – 19.5k |
| 2028 | 18.5k | 25.4k | 12.6k | 16.8k – 20.2k |
| 2030 | 18.2k | 27.1k | 10.5k | 15.7k – 20.7k |
| 2035 | 17.5k | 30.1k | 6.7k | 13.2k – 21.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±168.96typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 87.4 | 100.57 | 72.21 | 83.98 – 90.83 |
| 2028 | 94.21 | 117.02 | 67.9 | 86.18 – 102.25 |
| 2030 | 101.02 | 130.47 | 67.05 | 88.41 – 113.64 |
| 2035 | 118.05 | 159.69 | 70.01 | 92.75 – 143.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead87.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.8typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.55 | 6.9 | -4.19 | 0.34 – 2.76 |
| 2028 | 2.2 | 11.48 | -5 | 0.04 – 4.37 |
| 2030 | 2.86 | 14.83 | -5 | -0.02 – 5.74 |
| 2035 | 4.49 | 21.43 | -5 | 0.02 – 8.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.75typical miss · 1 realized · 94% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.99(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18.48 | 22.26 | 15.2 | 17.64 – 19.31 |
| 2026 | 17.3 | 23.85 | 11.62 | 15.53 – 19.07 |
| 2028 | 16.12 | 24.58 | 8.79 | 13.62 – 18.62 |
| 2033 | 13.18 | 25.14 | 2.8 | 9.36 – 16.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.89· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.4m |
| 2028 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.5m |
| 2030 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.2m – 1.5m |
| 2035 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.1m – 1.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±74.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.19 | 10.51 | -7.55 | -1.11 – 1.5 |
| 2028 | 1.31 | 15 | -10 | -0.99 – 3.61 |
| 2030 | 2.43 | 15 | -10 | -0.65 – 5.51 |
| 2035 | 5.22 | 15 | -10 | 0.31 – 10.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.79typical miss · 1 realized · 1297% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7bn | 5.3bn | 4.2bn | 4.6bn – 4.9bn |
| 2028 | 3.8bn | 4.8bn | 2.8bn | 3.5bn – 4.1bn |
| 2030 | 2.9bn | 4.1bn | 1.6bn | 2.5bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 607.1m | 2.4bn | 0 | 240.6m – 973.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±18.9mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.25 | 9.33 | 3.16 | 5.67 – 6.82 |
| 2028 | 7.14 | 12.49 | 1.8 | 5.98 – 8.3 |
| 2030 | 7.58 | 14.48 | 0.68 | 5.92 – 9.24 |
| 2035 | 7.93 | 17.69 | 0 | 5.17 – 10.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5bn | 5.6bn | 4.5bn | 4.9bn – 5.2bn |
| 2028 | 4.2bn | 5.1bn | 3.2bn | 3.8bn – 4.5bn |
| 2030 | 3.4bn | 4.6bn | 2.1bn | 2.9bn – 3.8bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 3bn | 0 | 800.9m – 1.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±81.7mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.08 | 3.93 | 2.22 | 2.9 – 3.26 |
| 2028 | 2.58 | 4.06 | 1.09 | 2.22 – 2.93 |
| 2030 | 2.07 | 3.99 | 0.16 | 1.61 – 2.53 |
| 2035 | 0.82 | 3.52 | 0 | 0.24 – 1.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.32typical miss · 1 realized · 30% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TTO · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 29863019438.8568 + -1441383509.0154·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.93 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.82 | 2025 (25.9bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 18.2613 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.631 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.11 | 2023 (3.36) |
| 2027 | 0.09 | 2024 (3.32) |
| 2028 | 0.09 | 2025 (3.33) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -1.7865 + 0.5651·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.554 over 38 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.61 | 2025 (5) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 58.7666 + -0.8312·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TTO?indicator= · API docs
