Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Türkiye: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Türkiye's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.872 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.24 | 2025 (1.6T) |
Latest observed-2.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.04 | 3.25 | -9.33 | -4.37 – -1.71 |
| 2029 | -3.53 | 7.37 | -14.42 | -5.92 – -1.13 |
| 2031 | -4.01 | 10.06 | -18.07 | -7.2 – -0.82 |
| 2036 | -5.22 | 14.67 | -25.11 | -10.11 – -0.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.95· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.1 | 33.07 | 16.33 | 22.43 – 25.77 |
| 2028 | 22.61 | 38.15 | 9.14 | 19.3 – 25.91 |
| 2030 | 21.11 | 41.17 | 3.72 | 16.55 – 25.66 |
| 2035 | 17.37 | 45.74 | 0 | 10.54 – 24.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.81· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.07typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.8T | 2T | 1.6T | 1.7T – 1.8T |
| 2029 | 2.1T | 2.4T | 1.8T | 1.9T – 2.3T |
| 2031 | 2.4T | 2.9T | 2T | 2.1T – 2.7T |
| 2036 | 3.2T | 3.9T | 2.7T | 2.6T – 3.9T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.8T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3 | 8.12 | -1.43 | 2.1 – 3.9 |
| 2029 | 1.98 | 10.84 | -5.7 | 0.41 – 3.55 |
| 2031 | 0.95 | 12 | -8.96 | -1.03 – 2.94 |
| 2036 | -1.61 | 12 | -10 | -4.56 – 1.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.61· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 20.5k | 22.9k | 18.4k | 19.8k – 21.1k |
| 2029 | 24.1k | 28.3k | 20.5k | 22.3k – 25.9k |
| 2031 | 27.8k | 33.2k | 23.1k | 24.6k – 30.9k |
| 2036 | 36.9k | 44.5k | 30.2k | 29.2k – 44.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.6k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 24.73 | 32.79 | 15.42 | 23.09 – 26.36 |
| 2029 | 23.18 | 37.15 | 7.06 | 19.92 – 26.44 |
| 2031 | 21.64 | 39.67 | 0.82 | 17.13 – 26.14 |
| 2036 | 17.77 | 43.28 | 0 | 11 – 24.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.78· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.6 | 34.39 | 14.8 | 22.7 – 26.49 |
| 2028 | 23.62 | 40.59 | 6.64 | 19.89 – 27.35 |
| 2030 | 22.64 | 44.55 | 0.73 | 17.47 – 27.8 |
| 2035 | 20.19 | 51.18 | 0 | 12.22 – 28.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.36typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28.11 | 50 | -5 | 15.38 – 40.84 |
| 2029 | 19.32 | 50 | -5 | -2.88 – 41.51 |
| 2031 | 10.52 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 38.82 |
| 2036 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 34.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.01· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.69 | 35.05 | 26.92 | 29.58 – 31.8 |
| 2028 | 31 | 38.54 | 24.46 | 28.43 – 33.56 |
| 2030 | 31.31 | 41.04 | 22.87 | 27.41 – 35.2 |
| 2035 | 32.08 | 45.84 | 20.14 | 24.98 – 39.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.53· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.41typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 86.1m | 90.2m | 82.4m | 83.5m – 88.8m |
| 2029 | 86.6m | 90.6m | 82.8m | 80.1m – 93m |
| 2031 | 87m | 91.1m | 83.1m | 77.1m – 96.8m |
| 2036 | 88m | 92.1m | 84.1m | 69.7m – 106.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead86.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.06 | 9.86 | -3.79 | 1.05 – 3.07 |
| 2028 | 2.15 | 15 | -7.98 | 0.36 – 3.95 |
| 2030 | 2.25 | 15 | -10 | -0.11 – 4.61 |
| 2035 | 2.49 | 15 | -10 | -1 – 5.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.29typical miss · 1 realized · 117% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70.7bn | 103.2bn | 38.1bn | 64.6bn – 76.8bn |
| 2028 | 68.2bn | 124.6bn | 11.8bn | 56.3bn – 80.1bn |
| 2030 | 65.8bn | 138.6bn | 0 | 49.4bn – 82.2bn |
| 2035 | 59.6bn | 162.6bn | 0 | 34.3bn – 84.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead67.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.73(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.72 | 5.79 | 3.65 | 4.48 – 4.96 |
| 2027 | 4.71 | 6.56 | 2.85 | 4.2 – 5.22 |
| 2029 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 3.96 – 5.44 |
| 2034 | 4.69 | 8.09 | 1.3 | 3.42 – 5.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.71· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed185.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 198.2bn | 221.2bn | 175.2bn | 191.5bn – 204.9bn |
| 2028 | 230.5bn | 270.3bn | 190.7bn | 213.3bn – 247.6bn |
| 2030 | 262.8bn | 314.1bn | 211.4bn | 232.9bn – 292.6bn |
| 2035 | 343.5bn | 416.1bn | 270.8bn | 272.2bn – 414.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead196bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.59 | 8.55 | 6.63 | 7.32 – 7.86 |
| 2029 | 6.18 | 7.84 | 4.51 | 5.63 – 6.73 |
| 2031 | 4.76 | 6.91 | 2.61 | 4.05 – 5.47 |
| 2036 | 1.22 | 4.26 | 0 | 0.56 – 1.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.46· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TUR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | -1.58 | 2026 (1.6T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 67.8305 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.789 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.1T | 2026 (25.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1561643593063.232 + -19185706978.2483·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.725 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.55 | 2025 (34.88) |
| 2028 | 9.84 | 2026 (28.6) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 11.1585 + -0.0461·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.635 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 48.25 | 2024 (-1) |
| 2028 | 41.16 | 2025 (-1.9) |
| 2029 | 34.07 | 2026 (-2.8) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 56.1333 + 7.8787·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.597 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.59 | 2025 (8.52) |
| 2028 | -1.43 | 2026 (8.3) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 4.5732 + -0.7237·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TUR?indicator= · API docs
