Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Tuvalu: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Tuvalu's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.902 over 19 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 57.3m | 2024 (7) |
Latest observed-1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.09 | 30 | -30 | -10.13 – 12.31 |
| 2029 | 5.26 | 30 | -30 | -14.39 – 24.91 |
| 2031 | 9.43 | 30 | -30 | -16.37 – 30 |
| 2036 | 19.87 | 30 | -30 | -18.73 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.49· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 67.5m | 79.8m | 57m | 65m – 70.1m |
| 2029 | 73.7m | 94.8m | 55.4m | 67.6m – 79.7m |
| 2031 | 79.8m | 107.1m | 56.1m | 70.2m – 89.4m |
| 2036 | 95.1m | 133.7m | 61.7m | 75.3m – 114.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead66.4m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.63 | 12 | -10 | -0.26 – 5.52 |
| 2029 | 3.16 | 12 | -10 | -1.92 – 8.25 |
| 2031 | 3.7 | 12 | -10 | -2.96 – 10.36 |
| 2036 | 5.04 | 12 | -10 | -4.77 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.31· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.9k | 8k | 5.9k | 6.6k – 7.1k |
| 2029 | 7.5k | 9.5k | 5.8k | 6.9k – 8.1k |
| 2031 | 8.2k | 10.7k | 6k | 7.2k – 9.1k |
| 2036 | 9.9k | 13.4k | 6.8k | 7.8k – 11.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.7k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.1 | 5.39 | 0 | 1.57 – 2.64 |
| 2029 | 0 | 5.69 | 0 | 0 – 0.92 |
| 2031 | 0 | 7.35 | 0 | 0 – 1.21 |
| 2036 | 0 | 10.39 | 0 | 0 – 1.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.5(2011)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.66 | 12.29 | -5 | 1.68 – 5.63 |
| 2029 | 5.2 | 20.16 | -5 | 1.63 – 8.76 |
| 2031 | 6.74 | 26.05 | -5 | 1.92 – 11.56 |
| 2036 | 10.59 | 37.9 | -5 | 2.84 – 18.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.53· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.1k | 10.6k | 9.7k | 9.8k – 10.4k |
| 2029 | 10.7k | 11.4k | 10k | 9.9k – 11.5k |
| 2031 | 11.2k | 12.1k | 10.4k | 10k – 12.5k |
| 2036 | 12.6k | 13.9k | 11.4k | 10k – 15.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.9k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TUV · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 60.9m | 2025 (3.6) |
| 2029 | 61.3m | 2026 (3.2) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 64660169.7934 + -1056253.2415·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.898 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.3 | 2026 (65m) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 45.8303 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.628 over 19 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 23.16 | 2024 (7) |
| 2028 | 32.64 | 2025 (3.6) |
| 2029 | 33.75 | 2026 (3.2) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 42.6751 + -2.7878·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TUV?indicator= · API docs
