Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Tuvalu: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Tuvalu's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.9 over 18 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.3m | 2023 (5.8) |
Latest observed4.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20 | 30 | -30 | 4.98 – 30 |
| 2028 | 17.79 | 30 | -30 | -8.52 – 30 |
| 2030 | 15.58 | 30 | -30 | -18.53 – 30 |
| 2035 | 10.06 | 30 | -30 | -30 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±15.3typical miss · 1 realized · 325% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.4m | 70.1m | 48.4m | 56.1m – 60.8m |
| 2028 | 61m | 81.1m | 43.6m | 55.7m – 66.3m |
| 2030 | 63.6m | 89.6m | 41.1m | 55.4m – 71.8m |
| 2035 | 70m | 106.8m | 38.2m | 54.4m – 85.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead86.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±24.6mtypical miss · 1 realized · 30% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.44 | 12 | -10 | -1.46 – 4.33 |
| 2028 | 1.32 | 12 | -10 | -3.72 – 6.35 |
| 2030 | 1.2 | 12 | -10 | -5.31 – 7.71 |
| 2035 | 0.91 | 12 | -10 | -8.33 – 10.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.96typical miss · 1 realized · 58% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2k | 7.4k | 5.2k | 6k – 6.5k |
| 2028 | 6.7k | 8.7k | 5k | 6.1k – 7.2k |
| 2030 | 7.1k | 9.7k | 4.9k | 6.3k – 8k |
| 2035 | 8.3k | 11.9k | 5.1k | 6.5k – 10k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.7k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 26% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.79 | 5.21 | 0 | 1.23 – 2.34 |
| 2028 | 0 | 5.94 | 0 | 0 – 0.96 |
| 2030 | 0 | 7.66 | 0 | 0 – 1.26 |
| 2035 | 0 | 10.84 | 0 | 0 – 1.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.97· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.71typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.5(2011)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.58 | 14.95 | -5 | 2.2 – 6.95 |
| 2028 | 8.08 | 26.05 | -5 | 3.7 – 12.45 |
| 2030 | 11.58 | 34.78 | -5 | 5.51 – 17.65 |
| 2035 | 20.33 | 50 | -5 | 9.8 – 30.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.28typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.5k | 10k | 9.1k | 9.2k – 9.8k |
| 2028 | 9.4k | 9.8k | 9k | 8.7k – 10.1k |
| 2030 | 9.2k | 9.6k | 8.8k | 8.2k – 10.2k |
| 2035 | 8.8k | 9.2k | 8.4k | 7k – 10.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±458.48typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TUV · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 57m | 2024 (6.1) |
| 2028 | 60.2m | 2025 (2.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 63009795.3639 + -990089.0234·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.898 over 21 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.11 | 2023 (50.5m) |
| 2027 | 2.76 | 2024 (56.8m) |
| 2028 | 2.35 | 2025 (57.3m) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 42.1326 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.634 over 18 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.07 | 2023 (5.8) |
| 2027 | 27.21 | 2024 (6.1) |
| 2028 | 36.7 | 2025 (2.8) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 44.7626 + -2.8778·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TUV?indicator= · API docs
