Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Taiwan: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Taiwan's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.747 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 29.85 | 2025 (3.4) |
Latest observed18.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.87 | 22.31 | 15.44 | 17.87 – 19.88 |
| 2029 | 20.42 | 26.37 | 14.47 | 18.22 – 22.61 |
| 2031 | 21.96 | 29.64 | 14.28 | 18.64 – 25.29 |
| 2036 | 25.83 | 30 | 14.96 | 19.48 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.57· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed976.7bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1T | 1.1T | 947bn | 998.1bn – 1.1T |
| 2029 | 1.2T | 1.3T | 1T | 1.1T – 1.2T |
| 2031 | 1.3T | 1.5T | 1.1T | 1.1T – 1.4T |
| 2036 | 1.6T | 1.9T | 1.4T | 1.3T – 1.9T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.31 | 12 | -0.97 | 4.02 – 6.61 |
| 2029 | 5.57 | 12 | -5.31 | 3.21 – 7.93 |
| 2031 | 5.83 | 12 | -8.22 | 2.66 – 9 |
| 2036 | 6.47 | 12 | -10 | 1.62 – 11.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.06· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.1k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 44.4k | 48.7k | 40.7k | 43k – 45.8k |
| 2029 | 50.1k | 57.5k | 43.7k | 46.4k – 53.8k |
| 2031 | 55.8k | 65.4k | 47.5k | 49.5k – 62.1k |
| 2036 | 70k | 83.6k | 58.3k | 55.5k – 84.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 26.51 | 30.9 | 21.44 | 25.41 – 27.61 |
| 2029 | 24.32 | 31.93 | 15.54 | 21.98 – 26.66 |
| 2031 | 22.13 | 31.96 | 10.79 | 18.85 – 25.41 |
| 2036 | 16.66 | 30.56 | 0.63 | 11.86 – 21.46 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.65· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.47 | 2.51 | 0.37 | 1.22 – 1.73 |
| 2029 | 1.19 | 2.99 | -0.73 | 0.74 – 1.65 |
| 2031 | 0.91 | 3.23 | -1.57 | 0.32 – 1.51 |
| 2036 | 0.21 | 3.49 | -3.29 | -0.67 – 1.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.33· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.2m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 23.2m | 24.3m | 22.2m | 22.5m – 23.9m |
| 2029 | 23.1m | 24.2m | 22.1m | 21.4m – 24.8m |
| 2031 | 23m | 24.1m | 22m | 20.4m – 25.6m |
| 2036 | 22.7m | 23.8m | 21.7m | 18m – 27.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.2m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.29 | 3.51 | 3.06 | 3.18 – 3.39 |
| 2029 | 3.06 | 3.45 | 2.66 | 2.83 – 3.28 |
| 2031 | 2.83 | 3.34 | 2.32 | 2.51 – 3.15 |
| 2036 | 2.26 | 2.98 | 1.53 | 1.79 – 2.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.42· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TWN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 |
| 29.85 |
| 2026 (3.4) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 15.8147 + 4.1279·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.651 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.36 | 2026 (5.2) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.6001 + -0.2383·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.6 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 413.9bn | 2024 (5.3) |
| 2028 | 262.7bn | 2025 (8.7) |
| 2029 | 418.4bn | 2026 (5.2) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 649690388328.0112 + -44483818313.1487·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.536 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.65 | 2026 (3.4) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 4.6376 + -0.8794·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.502 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.38 | 2026 (976.7bn) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 8.029 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TWN?indicator= · API docs
