Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Taiwan: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Taiwan's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.753 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.01 | 2024 (3.4) |
Latest observed22(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.88 | 25.64 | 16.12 | 19.57 – 22.18 |
| 2028 | 22.64 | 30 | 14.4 | 19.87 – 25.4 |
| 2030 | 24.39 | 30 | 13.76 | 20.27 – 28.52 |
| 2035 | 28.79 | 30 | 13.74 | 21.11 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.12typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 956.2bn | 1.1T | 867.5bn | 926.6bn – 985.9bn |
| 2028 | 1T | 1.2T | 895.4bn | 971.5bn – 1.1T |
| 2030 | 1.1T | 1.4T | 943.5bn | 1T – 1.3T |
| 2035 | 1.4T | 1.7T | 1.1T | 1.1T – 1.7T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±63.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.18 | 12 | 5.23 | 9.86 – 12 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | 1.69 | 9.44 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -1.31 | 8.48 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -6.83 | 6.46 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.58· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.48typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41k | 45.6k | 37.1k | 39.7k – 42.3k |
| 2028 | 45k | 52.9k | 38.1k | 41.7k – 48.3k |
| 2030 | 49k | 59.2k | 40.1k | 43.4k – 54.6k |
| 2035 | 59k | 73.4k | 46.5k | 46.7k – 71.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead46.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.42 | 24.01 | 20.57 | 21.72 – 23.11 |
| 2028 | 20.05 | 22.82 | 16.86 | 18.57 – 21.53 |
| 2030 | 17.68 | 21.25 | 13.56 | 15.67 – 19.69 |
| 2035 | 11.76 | 16.81 | 5.94 | 9.1 – 14.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.8· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.32typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.53 | 3.64 | -0.74 | 1.03 – 2.02 |
| 2028 | 0.83 | 4.49 | -3.1 | -0.03 – 1.69 |
| 2030 | 0.13 | 4.85 | -4.94 | -1 – 1.25 |
| 2035 | -1.62 | 5.06 | -5 | -3.37 – 0.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.96· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.47typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.2m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.3m | 24.4m | 22.3m | 22.6m – 24m |
| 2028 | 23.2m | 24.3m | 22.2m | 21.5m – 24.9m |
| 2030 | 23.1m | 24.2m | 22.1m | 20.4m – 25.7m |
| 2035 | 22.8m | 23.9m | 21.8m | 18.1m – 27.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±89ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.27 | 3.55 | 2.99 | 3.17 – 3.37 |
| 2028 | 3.01 | 3.49 | 2.53 | 2.79 – 3.24 |
| 2030 | 2.76 | 3.38 | 2.14 | 2.44 – 3.07 |
| 2035 | 2.11 | 2.99 | 1.24 | 1.64 – 2.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.13typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TWN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 |
| 30.01 |
| 2025 (3.4) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 16.225 + 4.053·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.661 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46 | 2025 (8.8) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.6158 + -0.2447·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.627 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 424bn | 2023 (3.5) |
| 2027 | 412.7bn | 2024 (3.4) |
| 2028 | 412.7bn | 2025 (3.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 28970794508.0856 + 112862783438.3779·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.536 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.65 | 2025 (3.4) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 4.6395 + -0.879·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.53 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.18 | 2025 (920.6bn) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 8.2771 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TWN?indicator= · API docs
