Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Ukraine: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2022, 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2031, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Ukraine's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.681 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.96 | 2023 (181.2bn) |
Latest observed-11(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -17.66 | -6.56 | -28.76 | -20.21 – -15.11 |
| 2028 | -20.98 | -1.76 | -30 | -25.91 – -16.05 |
| 2030 | -24.3 | 0.51 | -30 | -30 – -17.29 |
| 2035 | -30 | 5.1 | -30 | -30 – -18.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-11.9· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.66typical miss · 1 realized · 61% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.55 | 29.09 | 16.88 | 21.25 – 23.84 |
| 2028 | 16.98 | 28.31 | 7.16 | 14.55 – 19.41 |
| 2030 | 11.41 | 26.04 | 0 | 8.41 – 14.41 |
| 2035 | 0 | 20.69 | 0 | 0 – 3.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.49· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.32typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed214.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 225.6bn | 274.8bn | 183bn | 216.1bn – 235.1bn |
| 2028 | 253.2bn | 338.4bn | 179.4bn | 230.9bn – 275.5bn |
| 2030 | 280.9bn | 390.9bn | 185.5bn | 245.3bn – 316.4bn |
| 2035 | 349.9bn | 505.5bn | 215.1bn | 275.4bn – 424.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead234.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.8bntypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.06 | 12 | -10 | -6.41 – 8.53 |
| 2028 | 0.09 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2030 | -0.87 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2035 | -3.28 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.06typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2k | 7.3k | 5.3k | 6k – 6.5k |
| 2028 | 7.2k | 9k | 5.6k | 6.6k – 7.7k |
| 2030 | 8.1k | 10.5k | 6k | 7.2k – 9k |
| 2035 | 10.4k | 13.8k | 7.5k | 8.3k – 12.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±831.73typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed111.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 110.43 | 135.09 | 81.97 | 104.87 – 115.99 |
| 2028 | 117.08 | 159.8 | 67.8 | 104.89 – 129.28 |
| 2030 | 123.74 | 178.88 | 60.11 | 105.36 – 142.12 |
| 2035 | 140.38 | 218.37 | 50.39 | 105.92 – 174.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead114.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.37typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.15 | 63 | 41.3 | 49.65 – 54.64 |
| 2028 | 52.75 | 71.55 | 33.96 | 47.35 – 58.16 |
| 2030 | 53.36 | 77.62 | 29.1 | 45.38 – 61.34 |
| 2035 | 54.87 | 89.18 | 20.56 | 40.84 – 68.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead51.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.3typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.89 | 30.91 | -0.21 | 12.3 – 19.47 |
| 2028 | 24.61 | 50 | -3.28 | 17.66 – 31.56 |
| 2030 | 33.33 | 50 | -2.67 | 23.21 – 43.44 |
| 2035 | 50 | 50 | -0.91 | 31.47 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.99typical miss · 1 realized · 79% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.51 | 27.9 | 14.11 | 19.13 – 21.89 |
| 2028 | 23.19 | 35.99 | 12.11 | 20.25 – 26.14 |
| 2030 | 25.88 | 42.4 | 11.56 | 21.45 – 30.31 |
| 2035 | 32.59 | 55.95 | 12.35 | 24.04 – 41.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.78typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.5m | 42.2m | 37m | 38.3m – 40.7m |
| 2028 | 40.7m | 45.4m | 36.4m | 37.7m – 43.8m |
| 2030 | 42m | 48m | 36.4m | 37.2m – 46.7m |
| 2035 | 45.1m | 53.6m | 37.1m | 35.7m – 54.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.3m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.44(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.99 | 15 | -2.57 | 4.46 – 7.51 |
| 2024 | 7.64 | 15 | -7.18 | 4.81 – 10.48 |
| 2026 | 9.3 | 15 | -9.84 | 5.37 – 13.23 |
| 2031 | 13.44 | 15 | -10 | 6.78 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.58· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.8bn | 68.4bn | 49.2bn | 56.4bn – 61.2bn |
| 2028 | 72bn | 88.6bn | 55.4bn | 66bn – 78bn |
| 2030 | 85.3bn | 106.7bn | 63.8bn | 75.2bn – 95.4bn |
| 2035 | 118.4bn | 148.7bn | 88bn | 93.8bn – 142.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead57.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.28 | 6.74 | 3.82 | 4.97 – 5.59 |
| 2028 | 4.67 | 7.2 | 2.15 | 4.06 – 5.28 |
| 2030 | 4.38 | 7.63 | 1.12 | 3.53 – 5.23 |
| 2035 | 4.14 | 8.75 | 0 | 2.77 – 5.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.12typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.1bn | 73.3bn | 52.8bn | 60.5bn – 65.7bn |
| 2028 | 77.4bn | 95.2bn | 59.7bn | 71bn – 83.9bn |
| 2030 | 91.8bn | 114.7bn | 68.9bn | 80.9bn – 102.6bn |
| 2035 | 127.7bn | 160.1bn | 95.3bn | 101.2bn – 154.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead61.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.83(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.03 | 26.74 | 0 | 9.58 – 14.47 |
| 2028 | 12.89 | 38.37 | 0 | 8.37 – 17.41 |
| 2030 | 13.75 | 40 | 0 | 7.61 – 19.88 |
| 2035 | 15.89 | 40 | 0 | 6.23 – 25.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.49· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.83typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/UKR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 74.88 | 2024 (190.8bn) |
| 2028 | 81.99 | 2025 (214.2bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 16.8986 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.569 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.35 | 2025 (214.2bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 4.0656 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.514 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.22 | 2025 (12.73) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 0.2929 + -0.0057·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/UKR?indicator= · API docs
