Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Uruguay: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Uruguay's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.668 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.55 | 2024 (67.6) |
Latest observed-0.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.91 | 1.73 | -3.55 | -1.46 – -0.35 |
| 2029 | -1.12 | 3.45 | -5.69 | -2.1 – -0.13 |
| 2031 | -1.33 | 4.57 | -7.23 | -2.64 – -0.02 |
| 2036 | -1.86 | 6.49 | -10.21 | -3.86 – 0.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.07· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.21 | 34.14 | 21.2 | 25.78 – 28.63 |
| 2028 | 27.48 | 39.49 | 17.08 | 24.45 – 30.52 |
| 2030 | 27.76 | 43.26 | 14.32 | 23.32 – 32.19 |
| 2035 | 28.44 | 50.36 | 9.45 | 20.76 – 36.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.99· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.3typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 100.2bn | 113.3bn | 88.9bn | 97.1bn – 103.4bn |
| 2029 | 111.1bn | 133.7bn | 91.5bn | 102.9bn – 119.3bn |
| 2031 | 122bn | 151.2bn | 96.7bn | 108.2bn – 135.9bn |
| 2036 | 149.3bn | 190.6bn | 113.5bn | 118.3bn – 180.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead100.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.11 | 5.52 | -2.7 | 0.36 – 1.86 |
| 2029 | -0.4 | 7.23 | -7.01 | -1.72 – 0.92 |
| 2031 | -1.91 | 7.93 | -10 | -3.71 – -0.12 |
| 2036 | -5.7 | 8.23 | -10 | -8.93 – -2.46 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28.7k | 32.4k | 25.5k | 27.8k – 29.6k |
| 2029 | 31.6k | 38k | 26.1k | 29.3k – 33.9k |
| 2031 | 34.5k | 42.8k | 27.4k | 30.6k – 38.4k |
| 2036 | 41.8k | 53.5k | 31.7k | 33.1k – 50.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 67.85 | 75.17 | 59.4 | 65.64 – 70.06 |
| 2029 | 69.95 | 82.63 | 55.32 | 64.64 – 75.26 |
| 2031 | 72.05 | 88.42 | 53.16 | 63.77 – 80.33 |
| 2036 | 77.3 | 100.46 | 50.59 | 61.27 – 93.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead66.61· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.96 | 26.94 | 18.98 | 21.98 – 23.93 |
| 2028 | 23.58 | 30.48 | 16.69 | 21.39 – 25.77 |
| 2030 | 24.21 | 33.11 | 15.3 | 20.91 – 27.5 |
| 2035 | 25.76 | 38.35 | 13.18 | 19.72 – 31.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.79typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.81 | 6.82 | 0.58 | 3.08 – 4.54 |
| 2029 | 2.9 | 8.11 | -2.69 | 1.6 – 4.19 |
| 2031 | 1.99 | 8.72 | -5 | 0.34 – 3.64 |
| 2036 | -0.29 | 9.23 | -5 | -2.56 – 1.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.36· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.43 | 18.09 | 13.13 | 14.81 – 16.06 |
| 2028 | 14.56 | 19.16 | 10.57 | 13.2 – 15.91 |
| 2030 | 13.68 | 19.62 | 8.53 | 11.74 – 15.62 |
| 2035 | 11.49 | 19.9 | 4.21 | 8.45 – 14.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.5m | 3.7m | 3.3m | 3.4m – 3.6m |
| 2029 | 3.6m | 3.8m | 3.4m | 3.3m – 3.9m |
| 2031 | 3.7m | 3.9m | 3.5m | 3.3m – 4.1m |
| 2036 | 4m | 4.2m | 3.8m | 3.1m – 4.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.5m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.63 | 7.39 | -4.45 | -0.23 – 1.49 |
| 2028 | 0.63 | 12.35 | -8.16 | -0.88 – 2.14 |
| 2030 | 0.63 | 15 | -10 | -1.34 – 2.6 |
| 2035 | 0.63 | 15 | -10 | -2.2 – 3.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.04typical miss · 1 realized · 163% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.8bn | 22.3bn | 17.2bn | 19.1bn – 20.5bn |
| 2028 | 21.6bn | 26bn | 17.3bn | 19.9bn – 23.3bn |
| 2030 | 23.5bn | 29.1bn | 17.9bn | 20.8bn – 26.2bn |
| 2035 | 28.2bn | 36.1bn | 20.2bn | 22.3bn – 34bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.81 | 12.58 | 5.05 | 8.1 – 9.53 |
| 2028 | 8.99 | 15.51 | 2.47 | 7.56 – 10.42 |
| 2030 | 9.07 | 17.49 | 0.65 | 7.06 – 11.09 |
| 2035 | 9.14 | 21.05 | 0 | 5.86 – 12.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.57· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.8bn | 22.3bn | 17.3bn | 19.1bn – 20.5bn |
| 2028 | 21.6bn | 26bn | 17.3bn | 19.9bn – 23.3bn |
| 2030 | 23.5bn | 29.1bn | 17.9bn | 20.8bn – 26.3bn |
| 2035 | 28.2bn | 36.1bn | 20.3bn | 22.3bn – 34bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.78 | 9.22 | 6.33 | 7.43 – 8.12 |
| 2029 | 7.33 | 9.83 | 4.82 | 6.59 – 8.06 |
| 2031 | 6.88 | 10.11 | 3.65 | 5.83 – 7.92 |
| 2036 | 5.75 | 10.32 | 1.18 | 4.13 – 7.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.9· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/URY · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 6.81 | 2025 (65.7) |
| 2029 | 6.66 | 2026 (66.8) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 15.6017 + -0.1338·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.658 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 55.28 | 2024 (3.33) |
| 2028 | 58.93 | 2025 (1.78) |
| 2029 | 58.89 | 2026 (1.8) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 63.148 + -2.3662·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.63 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.91 | 2026 (1.8) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 10.5508 + -0.3587·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.593 over 66 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 39.9bn | 2026 (4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 41784064878.451 + -480062273.4078·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.546 over 15 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.67 | 2025 (85.3bn) |
| 2028 | 1.58 | 2026 (96.1bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -6.5392 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.509 over 14 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.14 | 2026 (-0.8) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 0.3732 + -0.9537·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/URY?indicator= · API docs
