Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Uruguay: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Uruguay's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.671 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.33 | 2023 (63) |
Latest observed-0.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.72 | 2.28 | -3.73 | -1.35 – -0.09 |
| 2028 | -1.17 | 4.04 | -6.38 | -2.29 – -0.05 |
| 2030 | -1.62 | 5.11 | -8.34 | -3.12 – -0.12 |
| 2035 | -2.74 | 6.77 | -12.25 | -5.12 – -0.36 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.18· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.18typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.21 | 34.14 | 21.2 | 25.78 – 28.63 |
| 2028 | 27.48 | 39.49 | 17.08 | 24.45 – 30.52 |
| 2030 | 27.76 | 43.26 | 14.32 | 23.32 – 32.19 |
| 2035 | 28.44 | 50.36 | 9.45 | 20.76 – 36.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.99· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.3typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.7bn | 101.8bn | 77.4bn | 85.7bn – 91.7bn |
| 2028 | 97.3bn | 120bn | 77.6bn | 89.9bn – 104.7bn |
| 2030 | 105.9bn | 135.1bn | 80.5bn | 93.8bn – 117.9bn |
| 2035 | 127.3bn | 168.7bn | 91.4bn | 100.9bn – 153.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead99.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46 | 12 | -8.55 | 0.3 – 4.61 |
| 2028 | 3.84 | 12 | -10 | -0.01 – 7.69 |
| 2030 | 5.22 | 12 | -10 | 0.07 – 10.37 |
| 2035 | 8.66 | 12 | -10 | 0.59 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.16typical miss · 1 realized · 89% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.2k | 30.1k | 22.8k | 25.3k – 27.1k |
| 2028 | 28.8k | 35.5k | 22.9k | 26.6k – 30.9k |
| 2030 | 31.3k | 40k | 23.8k | 27.7k – 34.9k |
| 2035 | 37.7k | 49.9k | 27k | 29.9k – 45.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed67.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 66.73 | 74.14 | 58.18 | 64.52 – 68.94 |
| 2028 | 68.99 | 81.82 | 54.17 | 63.7 – 74.27 |
| 2030 | 71.24 | 87.81 | 52.12 | 62.99 – 79.49 |
| 2035 | 76.88 | 100.32 | 49.84 | 60.94 – 92.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead67.53· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.97typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.96 | 26.94 | 18.98 | 21.98 – 23.93 |
| 2028 | 23.58 | 30.48 | 16.69 | 21.39 – 25.77 |
| 2030 | 24.21 | 33.11 | 15.3 | 20.91 – 27.5 |
| 2035 | 25.76 | 38.35 | 13.18 | 19.72 – 31.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.79typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.74 | 7.92 | 1.35 | 3.96 – 5.52 |
| 2028 | 4.47 | 9.96 | -1.42 | 3.03 – 5.9 |
| 2030 | 4.19 | 11.28 | -3.41 | 2.28 – 6.09 |
| 2035 | 3.49 | 13.52 | -5 | 0.71 – 6.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.74typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.43 | 18.09 | 13.13 | 14.81 – 16.06 |
| 2028 | 14.56 | 19.16 | 10.57 | 13.2 – 15.91 |
| 2030 | 13.68 | 19.62 | 8.53 | 11.74 – 15.62 |
| 2035 | 11.49 | 19.9 | 4.21 | 8.45 – 14.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.4m | 3.5m | 3.2m | 3.3m – 3.5m |
| 2028 | 3.4m | 3.5m | 3.2m | 3.1m – 3.6m |
| 2030 | 3.4m | 3.5m | 3.2m | 3m – 3.8m |
| 2035 | 3.4m | 3.5m | 3.2m | 2.7m – 4.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.5m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±95.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.63 | 7.39 | -4.45 | -0.23 – 1.49 |
| 2028 | 0.63 | 12.35 | -8.16 | -0.88 – 2.14 |
| 2030 | 0.63 | 15 | -10 | -1.34 – 2.6 |
| 2035 | 0.63 | 15 | -10 | -2.2 – 3.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.04typical miss · 1 realized · 163% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.8bn | 22.3bn | 17.2bn | 19.1bn – 20.5bn |
| 2028 | 21.6bn | 26bn | 17.3bn | 19.9bn – 23.3bn |
| 2030 | 23.5bn | 29.1bn | 17.9bn | 20.8bn – 26.2bn |
| 2035 | 28.2bn | 36.1bn | 20.2bn | 22.3bn – 34bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.79 | 12.55 | 5.03 | 8.07 – 9.51 |
| 2028 | 8.97 | 15.49 | 2.46 | 7.55 – 10.4 |
| 2030 | 9.06 | 17.47 | 0.65 | 7.05 – 11.08 |
| 2035 | 9.14 | 21.03 | 0 | 5.85 – 12.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.53· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.8bn | 22.3bn | 17.3bn | 19.1bn – 20.5bn |
| 2028 | 21.6bn | 26bn | 17.3bn | 19.9bn – 23.3bn |
| 2030 | 23.5bn | 29.1bn | 17.9bn | 20.8bn – 26.3bn |
| 2035 | 28.2bn | 36.1bn | 20.3bn | 22.3bn – 34bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.02 | 8.36 | 5.68 | 6.7 – 7.34 |
| 2028 | 6.03 | 8.35 | 3.71 | 5.38 – 6.67 |
| 2030 | 5.04 | 8.03 | 2.04 | 4.17 – 5.9 |
| 2035 | 2.55 | 6.79 | 0 | 1.5 – 3.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.48typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/URY · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 6.73 | 2024 (67.6) |
| 2028 | 6.99 | 2025 (65.6) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 15.51 + -0.1298·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.655 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.1 | 2023 (0.76) |
| 2027 | 55.09 | 2024 (3.33) |
| 2028 | 58.7 | 2025 (1.78) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 62.8864 + -2.345·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.638 over 13 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.45 | 2025 (-0.5) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 8.6515 + 0.3951·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.596 over 14 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.07 | 2024 (82.3bn) |
| 2027 | 1.4 | 2025 (85.3bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -7.9786 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.592 over 65 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37.8bn | 2025 (4.65) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 39935184937.6638 + -453119387.2608·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.517 over 13 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.75 | 2025 (-0.5) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 0.2639 + -0.9789·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/URY?indicator= · API docs
