Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
UVK: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, UVK's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.917 over 13 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14.79 | 2022 (21.4) |
Latest observed-9.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.55 | -5.6 | -11.5 | -9.29 – -7.81 |
| 2028 | -9.06 | -3.95 | -14.17 | -10.53 – -7.58 |
| 2030 | -9.56 | -2.96 | -16.16 | -11.67 – -7.45 |
| 2035 | -10.82 | -1.49 | -20.15 | -14.46 – -7.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-9.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.75typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.2bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.1bn | 14.6bn | 11.9bn | 12.7bn – 13.5bn |
| 2028 | 14.9bn | 17.3bn | 12.7bn | 13.8bn – 16bn |
| 2030 | 16.6bn | 19.8bn | 13.9bn | 14.7bn – 18.5bn |
| 2035 | 20.9bn | 25.4bn | 17.1bn | 16.6bn – 25.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1bntypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.73 | 12 | -9.95 | 1.04 – 6.42 |
| 2028 | 3.99 | 12 | -10 | -0.76 – 8.73 |
| 2030 | 4.24 | 12 | -10 | -1.98 – 10.46 |
| 2035 | 4.88 | 12 | -10 | -4.22 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.23typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.9k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.3k | 9.4k | 7.5k | 8.1k – 8.6k |
| 2028 | 9.7k | 11.5k | 8.2k | 9k – 10.4k |
| 2030 | 11.1k | 13.4k | 9.1k | 9.8k – 12.3k |
| 2035 | 14.5k | 17.7k | 11.7k | 11.5k – 17.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±560.99typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.83 | 22.53 | 12.42 | 16.83 – 18.84 |
| 2028 | 18.5 | 26.63 | 9.12 | 16.36 – 20.64 |
| 2030 | 19.16 | 29.66 | 7.06 | 16.02 – 22.31 |
| 2035 | 20.83 | 35.67 | 3.7 | 15.21 – 26.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.27typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.22 | 15.72 | -5 | 2.81 – 7.63 |
| 2028 | 8.44 | 26.63 | -5 | 4 – 12.88 |
| 2030 | 11.66 | 35.15 | -5 | 5.52 – 17.8 |
| 2035 | 19.71 | 50 | -5 | 9.19 – 30.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.58typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6m | 1.7m | 1.5m | 1.6m – 1.7m |
| 2028 | 1.6m | 1.8m | 1.5m | 1.5m – 1.7m |
| 2030 | 1.6m | 1.9m | 1.4m | 1.5m – 1.8m |
| 2035 | 1.7m | 2m | 1.4m | 1.3m – 2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±26.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.14 | 13.52 | 0.77 | 6.05 – 8.23 |
| 2027 | 0 | 11.04 | 0 | 0 – 1.74 |
| 2029 | 0 | 14.25 | 0 | 0 – 2.26 |
| 2034 | 0 | 20.15 | 0 | 0 – 3.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.83typical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/UVK · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2026 | 18.34 | 2023 (18.6) |
| 2027 | 19.23 | 2024 (17.9) |
| 2028 | 19.73 | 2025 (17.5) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 41.8947 + -1.2663·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.635 over 20 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.88 | 2023 (10.5bn) |
| 2027 | 24.3 | 2024 (11.2bn) |
| 2028 | 26.73 | 2025 (12.4bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 2.4786 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/UVK?indicator= · API docs
