Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Uzbekistan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Uzbekistan's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.738 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -50.2 | 2025 (7.7) |
Latest observed-1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.99 | 3.87 | -5.85 | -2 – 0.02 |
| 2029 | -0.37 | 8.05 | -8.79 | -2.13 – 1.4 |
| 2031 | 0.25 | 11.12 | -10.61 | -2.04 – 2.55 |
| 2036 | 1.81 | 17.18 | -13.56 | -1.62 – 5.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.91· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.89 | 25.63 | 18.66 | 21.01 – 22.78 |
| 2028 | 21.61 | 28.08 | 16 | 19.65 – 23.57 |
| 2030 | 21.33 | 29.68 | 14.09 | 18.43 – 24.23 |
| 2035 | 20.62 | 32.44 | 10.38 | 15.63 – 25.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.02typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed147bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 198.2bn | 219.7bn | 179.5bn | 192.1bn – 204.3bn |
| 2029 | 240.3bn | 277.6bn | 207.9bn | 222.5bn – 258bn |
| 2031 | 282.3bn | 330.5bn | 240.6bn | 250.3bn – 314.4bn |
| 2036 | 387.5bn | 455.7bn | 328.5bn | 307.1bn – 467.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead196.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.43 | 8.84 | 4.35 | 5.93 – 6.94 |
| 2029 | 6.25 | 10.42 | 2.64 | 5.26 – 7.25 |
| 2031 | 6.07 | 11.46 | 1.4 | 4.69 – 7.45 |
| 2036 | 5.62 | 12 | -0.98 | 3.45 – 7.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.32· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5k | 5.5k | 4.6k | 4.9k – 5.2k |
| 2029 | 6k | 6.8k | 5.3k | 5.5k – 6.4k |
| 2031 | 6.9k | 8k | 6k | 6.1k – 7.7k |
| 2036 | 9.3k | 10.8k | 8k | 7.4k – 11.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28.73 | 35.3 | 21.16 | 27.26 – 30.2 |
| 2029 | 31.2 | 42.57 | 18.09 | 27.95 – 34.45 |
| 2031 | 33.67 | 48.34 | 16.74 | 28.72 – 38.62 |
| 2036 | 39.83 | 60.58 | 15.89 | 30.27 – 49.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.29· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.31 | 41.3 | 29.32 | 33.83 – 36.79 |
| 2028 | 35.2 | 45.58 | 24.82 | 31.92 – 38.48 |
| 2030 | 35.09 | 48.49 | 21.69 | 30.23 – 39.95 |
| 2035 | 34.81 | 53.76 | 15.86 | 26.34 – 43.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.88typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.38 | 8.11 | 4.52 | 5.89 – 6.86 |
| 2029 | 3.86 | 6.86 | 0.65 | 3.01 – 4.71 |
| 2031 | 1.35 | 5.22 | -2.8 | 0.38 – 2.31 |
| 2036 | -4.94 | 0.54 | -5 | -5 – -2.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.2· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.27 | 42.75 | 28.78 | 33.64 – 36.9 |
| 2028 | 38.06 | 51.03 | 26.83 | 34.38 – 41.74 |
| 2030 | 40.85 | 57.59 | 26.35 | 35.19 – 46.51 |
| 2035 | 47.84 | 70 | 27.32 | 36.8 – 58.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.14typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 38.9m | 40.7m | 37.2m | 37.7m – 40.1m |
| 2029 | 41m | 42.9m | 39.2m | 37.9m – 44m |
| 2031 | 43m | 45.1m | 41.1m | 38.1m – 47.9m |
| 2036 | 48.2m | 50.6m | 46.1m | 38.2m – 58.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.55 | 14.64 | 2.24 | 6.55 – 8.56 |
| 2028 | 9.86 | 15 | 0.65 | 7.85 – 11.87 |
| 2030 | 12.17 | 15 | 0.28 | 9.21 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -1.81 | 9.8 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.68typical miss · 1 realized · 26% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8bn | 10.8bn | 5.3bn | 7.5bn – 8.6bn |
| 2027 | 5.4bn | 10.1bn | 734.6m | 4.5bn – 6.4bn |
| 2029 | 2.8bn | 8.9bn | 0 | 1.7bn – 4bn |
| 2034 | 0 | 8.6bn | 0 | 0 – 1.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.28(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11.53 | 17.34 | 5.71 | 10.45 – 12.6 |
| 2027 | 13.01 | 23.08 | 2.94 | 10.84 – 15.18 |
| 2029 | 13.74 | 26.74 | 0.74 | 10.65 – 16.83 |
| 2034 | 14.32 | 32.71 | 0 | 9.21 – 19.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.15· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.2bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 42.5bn | 48.1bn | 36.8bn | 40.9bn – 44bn |
| 2027 | 45.8bn | 55.7bn | 36bn | 42.1bn – 49.6bn |
| 2029 | 49.2bn | 62bn | 36.5bn | 43.3bn – 55.1bn |
| 2034 | 57.7bn | 75.7bn | 39.7bn | 45.7bn – 69.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.16 | 4.91 | 3.41 | 3.98 – 4.34 |
| 2029 | 3.89 | 5.19 | 2.58 | 3.5 – 4.27 |
| 2031 | 3.61 | 5.29 | 1.93 | 3.07 – 4.16 |
| 2036 | 2.92 | 5.3 | 0.55 | 2.09 – 3.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.21· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/UZB · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 8.98 | 2026 (6.5) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 329.5871 + -49.3248·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.703 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 29.12 | 2024 (-4.7) |
| 2028 | 27.63 | 2025 (-3.9) |
| 2029 | 22.79 | 2026 (-1.3) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 20.3716 + -1.8609·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.678 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.19 | 2026 (7) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 6.2421 + -0.0075·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.562 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 75.5bn | 2024 (4.44) |
| 2028 | 74bn | 2025 (4.62) |
| 2029 | 76.7bn | 2026 (4.3) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 113381817676.0129 + -8531103014.266·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.532 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.85 | 2024 (6.68) |
| 2028 | 5.48 | 2025 (7.7) |
| 2029 | 5.91 | 2026 (6.5) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 8.227 + -0.3564·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/UZB?indicator= · API docs
