Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, St. Vincent and the Grenadines's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.855 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 99.51 | 2025 (1.3bn) |
Latest observed-17.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -17.83 | -4.86 | -30 | -20.77 – -14.9 |
| 2028 | -20.7 | 1.78 | -30 | -26.28 – -15.12 |
| 2030 | -23.57 | 5.45 | -30 | -30 – -15.76 |
| 2035 | -30 | 11.04 | -30 | -30 – -16.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-17.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.63typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.2bn | 1.3bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.6bn |
| 2030 | 1.6bn | 1.8bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.8bn |
| 2035 | 2bn | 2.3bn | 1.7bn | 1.6bn – 2.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±44.7mtypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.23 | 8.93 | -1.7 | 2.23 – 4.23 |
| 2028 | 3.04 | 12 | -5.5 | 1.25 – 4.83 |
| 2030 | 2.85 | 12 | -8.18 | 0.5 – 5.2 |
| 2035 | 2.37 | 12 | -10 | -1.01 – 5.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.93typical miss · 1 realized · 41% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.2k | 14.2k | 12.3k | 12.8k – 13.6k |
| 2028 | 14.8k | 16.6k | 13.2k | 13.7k – 15.9k |
| 2030 | 16.4k | 18.8k | 14.4k | 14.5k – 18.3k |
| 2035 | 20.4k | 23.8k | 17.6k | 16.2k – 24.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.8ktypical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed111.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 111.81 | 123.53 | 98.29 | 108.22 – 115.4 |
| 2028 | 120.03 | 140.33 | 96.6 | 111.14 – 128.91 |
| 2030 | 128.24 | 154.45 | 98 | 113.68 – 142.8 |
| 2035 | 148.78 | 185.85 | 106.02 | 117.92 – 179.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead116.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.21typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.23 | 4.83 | -5 | -1.37 – 0.9 |
| 2028 | -4.17 | 4.6 | -5 | -5 – -2.03 |
| 2030 | -5 | 6.32 | -5 | -5 – -2.09 |
| 2035 | -5 | 11.02 | -5 | -5 – -0.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.93typical miss · 1 realized · 109% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 100.1k | 104.8k | 95.7k | 97k – 103.2k |
| 2028 | 99.4k | 104.1k | 95k | 92k – 106.7k |
| 2030 | 98.6k | 103.3k | 94.3k | 87.4k – 109.8k |
| 2035 | 96.7k | 101.3k | 92.5k | 76.6k – 116.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead111.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.25 | 8.38 | 1.16 | 3.67 – 4.84 |
| 2028 | 5.67 | 12.83 | 0.31 | 4.51 – 6.84 |
| 2030 | 7.09 | 15 | 0.17 | 5.37 – 8.81 |
| 2035 | 10.64 | 15 | 0.85 | 7.31 – 13.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.59typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed281.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 282.9m | 372.2m | 193.6m | 264.7m – 301.1m |
| 2028 | 288.7m | 443.4m | 134.1m | 251.2m – 326.3m |
| 2030 | 294.6m | 494.3m | 94.9m | 240.5m – 348.8m |
| 2035 | 309.3m | 591.7m | 26.9m | 216.6m – 402m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead300.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.03 | 7.13 | 2.94 | 4.63 – 5.44 |
| 2028 | 5.38 | 9 | 1.75 | 4.56 – 6.19 |
| 2030 | 5.55 | 10.23 | 0.86 | 4.39 – 6.71 |
| 2035 | 5.68 | 12.3 | 0 | 3.76 – 7.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.59· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed281.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 282.9m | 372.2m | 193.6m | 264.7m – 301.1m |
| 2028 | 288.7m | 443.4m | 134.1m | 251.2m – 326.3m |
| 2030 | 294.6m | 494.3m | 94.9m | 240.5m – 348.8m |
| 2035 | 309.3m | 591.7m | 26.9m | 216.6m – 402m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead300.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.41 | 18.26 | 16.55 | 16.87 – 17.95 |
| 2028 | 16.21 | 17.57 | 14.86 | 15.01 – 17.41 |
| 2030 | 15.02 | 16.77 | 13.28 | 13.31 – 16.73 |
| 2035 | 12.04 | 14.51 | 9.57 | 9.54 – 14.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.68· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/VCT · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 28.1769 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.853 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3bn | 2025 (107.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -240488043.7543 + 14477462.9149·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.775 over 11 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.57 | 2025 (-16.4) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -2.5243 + -0.3103·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.748 over 10 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.96 | 2024 (-17.1) |
| 2027 | 19.03 | 2025 (-16.4) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 20.6203 + 0.0972·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/VCT?indicator= · API docs
