Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Venezuela: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Venezuela's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.669 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 164.04 | 2023 (5.41) |
Latest observed-1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.08 | 7.52 | -7.68 | -1.65 – 1.49 |
| 2028 | -1.44 | 11.72 | -14.61 | -4.2 – 1.31 |
| 2030 | -2.8 | 14.19 | -19.8 | -6.5 – 0.89 |
| 2035 | -6.21 | 17.82 | -30 | -12.11 – -0.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.92typical miss · 1 realized · 92% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.98 | 37.26 | 0 | 7.05 – 14.91 |
| 2028 | 3.13 | 48.64 | 0 | 0 – 9.78 |
| 2030 | 0 | 58.76 | 0 | 0 – 8.47 |
| 2035 | 0 | 83.09 | 0 | 0 – 12.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.59· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.95typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 103.9bn | 153.7bn | 60.7bn | 96.3bn – 111.5bn |
| 2028 | 114bn | 200.3bn | 39.3bn | 98.3bn – 129.8bn |
| 2030 | 124.2bn | 235.5bn | 27.7bn | 101bn – 147.4bn |
| 2035 | 149.5bn | 307bn | 13bn | 106.8bn – 192.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead128.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±20.3bntypical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.45 | 12 | -10 | -2.08 – 6.97 |
| 2028 | 4.57 | 12 | -10 | -3.42 – 12 |
| 2030 | 6.68 | 12 | -10 | -3.87 – 12 |
| 2035 | 11.98 | 12 | -10 | -4.11 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.55typical miss · 1 realized · 51% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6k | 5.3k | 2.2k | 3.4k – 3.9k |
| 2028 | 4k | 6.9k | 1.4k | 3.5k – 4.5k |
| 2030 | 4.4k | 8.2k | 1.1k | 3.6k – 5.2k |
| 2035 | 5.2k | 10.6k | 592.39 | 3.8k – 6.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±712.85typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed308.7(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 300 | 300 | 139.69 | 273.83 – 300 |
| 2028 | 300 | 300 | 22.34 | 248.58 – 300 |
| 2030 | 300 | 300 | 0 | 228.21 – 300 |
| 2035 | 300 | 300 | 0 | 184.41 – 300 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead300· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.72 | 12.53 | 6.91 | 9.14 – 10.31 |
| 2028 | 8.95 | 13.82 | 4.08 | 7.77 – 10.12 |
| 2030 | 8.17 | 14.46 | 1.89 | 6.56 – 9.79 |
| 2035 | 6.24 | 15.13 | 0 | 3.88 – 8.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.92· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.98typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed254.95(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2028 | 50 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2030 | 50 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2035 | 50 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50· skill-weighted across models
Track record±417.9typical miss · 1 realized · 89% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.42 | 6.54 | 2.58 | 4.04 – 4.79 |
| 2028 | 4 | 7.67 | 0.81 | 3.28 – 4.71 |
| 2030 | 3.58 | 8.32 | 0 | 2.61 – 4.54 |
| 2035 | 2.53 | 9.24 | 0 | 1.17 – 3.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.36typical miss · 1 realized · 30% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.5m | 29.9m | 27.3m | 27.6m – 29.4m |
| 2028 | 28.6m | 30m | 27.4m | 26.5m – 30.8m |
| 2030 | 28.8m | 30.3m | 27.4m | 25.5m – 32m |
| 2035 | 29.1m | 31.2m | 27.1m | 23m – 35.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3bn(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1.8bn | 5.4bn | 0 | 1.2bn – 2.4bn |
| 2020 | 0 | 6.2bn | 0 | 0 – 948.6m |
| 2022 | 0 | 8bn | 0 | 0 – 1.2bn |
| 2027 | 0 | 11.3bn | 0 | 0 – 1.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.65(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 3.95 | 5.47 | 2.42 | 3.65 – 4.24 |
| 2019 | 4.29 | 6.93 | 1.65 | 3.68 – 4.9 |
| 2021 | 4.46 | 7.87 | 1.06 | 3.59 – 5.34 |
| 2026 | 4.6 | 9.42 | 0 | 3.13 – 6.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.46· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.8bn(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 6.7bn | 14.1bn | 0 | 5.5bn – 8bn |
| 2020 | 0 | 12.8bn | 0 | 0 – 2bn |
| 2022 | 0 | 16.5bn | 0 | 0 – 2.5bn |
| 2027 | 0 | 23.3bn | 0 | 0 – 3.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.84 | 5.81 | 3.86 | 4.61 – 5.06 |
| 2028 | 3.9 | 5.58 | 2.21 | 3.45 – 4.34 |
| 2030 | 2.95 | 5.13 | 0.77 | 2.38 – 3.52 |
| 2035 | 0.6 | 3.68 | 0 | 0 – 1.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.41· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/VEN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 165.45 | 2024 (5.32) |
| 2028 | 165.68 | 2025 (5.31) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 253.0872 + -16.4697·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.588 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.36 | 2023 (5.41) |
| 2027 | 0.26 | 2024 (5.32) |
| 2028 | 0.25 | 2025 (5.31) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -5.5699 + 1.0962·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.555 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16bn | 2025 (308.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 229720882332.1974 + -692328013.6322·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.534 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.37 | 2025 (252) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 0.5056 + -0.0005·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/VEN?indicator= · API docs
