Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Vietnam: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Vietnam's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.923 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.67 | 2024 (3.62) |
Latest observed0.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.37 | 14.25 | 0.49 | 5.85 – 8.89 |
| 2028 | 8.71 | 20.64 | -3.21 | 5.86 – 11.57 |
| 2030 | 10.06 | 25.45 | -5.33 | 6.11 – 14 |
| 2035 | 13.41 | 30 | -8.35 | 6.83 – 20 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.07typical miss · 1 realized · 2357% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 99.77 | 110.58 | 90.41 | 96.63 – 102.91 |
| 2028 | 102.83 | 121.55 | 86.61 | 95.22 – 110.44 |
| 2030 | 105.89 | 130.05 | 84.95 | 93.87 – 117.91 |
| 2035 | 113.53 | 147.71 | 83.92 | 89.98 – 137.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead99.33· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.86typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed514.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 540.2bn | 568.6bn | 515.6bn | 523.5bn – 557bn |
| 2028 | 605.1bn | 649.8bn | 566.4bn | 560.4bn – 649.9bn |
| 2030 | 670bn | 727.6bn | 620.1bn | 593.9bn – 746.1bn |
| 2035 | 832.2bn | 913.7bn | 761.6bn | 659.6bn – 1T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead572.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.21 | 12 | 3.55 | 7.98 – 10.45 |
| 2028 | 11.87 | 12 | 2.06 | 9.42 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -0.67 | 8.6 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -5.92 | 6.63 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.95· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.81typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3k | 5.6k | 5.1k | 5.1k – 5.5k |
| 2028 | 5.9k | 6.3k | 5.5k | 5.4k – 6.3k |
| 2030 | 6.5k | 7k | 6k | 5.7k – 7.2k |
| 2035 | 7.9k | 8.7k | 7.2k | 6.3k – 9.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±33.7typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.49 | 31 | 25.58 | 27.6 – 29.37 |
| 2028 | 24.46 | 28.81 | 19.43 | 22.61 – 26.3 |
| 2030 | 20.43 | 26.05 | 13.94 | 17.93 – 22.93 |
| 2035 | 10.36 | 18.31 | 1.19 | 7.48 – 13.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.58· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.19typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 93.27 | 108.4 | 78.14 | 89.46 – 97.08 |
| 2028 | 95.63 | 121.83 | 69.42 | 87.02 – 104.23 |
| 2030 | 97.98 | 131.81 | 64.16 | 84.96 – 111 |
| 2035 | 103.87 | 150 | 56.03 | 79.93 – 127.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead93.02· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.59typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.14 | 4.94 | 1.22 | 2.69 – 3.59 |
| 2028 | 2.71 | 5.82 | -0.62 | 1.89 – 3.53 |
| 2030 | 2.27 | 6.28 | -2.03 | 1.2 – 3.34 |
| 2035 | 1.18 | 6.86 | -4.9 | -0.26 – 2.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.27· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.56typical miss · 1 realized · 33% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.9 | 30.42 | 27.59 | 28 – 29.8 |
| 2028 | 28.17 | 30.12 | 26.48 | 26.08 – 30.25 |
| 2030 | 27.43 | 29.95 | 25.25 | 24.32 – 30.55 |
| 2035 | 25.6 | 29.16 | 22.51 | 20.29 – 30.91 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.11· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.51typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed101.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 101.4m | 106.2m | 97m | 98.3m – 104.6m |
| 2028 | 102.1m | 106.9m | 97.6m | 94.5m – 109.6m |
| 2030 | 102.8m | 107.6m | 98.2m | 91.1m – 114.4m |
| 2035 | 104.4m | 109.4m | 99.9m | 82.8m – 126.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead103.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.7mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.61 | 12.19 | 4.17 | 6.91 – 8.3 |
| 2028 | 8.45 | 15 | 2.5 | 7.05 – 9.84 |
| 2030 | 9.29 | 15 | 1.61 | 7.26 – 11.31 |
| 2035 | 11.38 | 15 | 0.53 | 7.75 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.32typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.8bn | 114.7bn | 56.9bn | 80bn – 91.6bn |
| 2028 | 86.3bn | 136.4bn | 36.3bn | 74.5bn – 98.1bn |
| 2030 | 86.8bn | 151.4bn | 22.2bn | 70bn – 103.7bn |
| 2035 | 88.1bn | 179.5bn | 0 | 60bn – 116.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead86.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.31 | 3.43 | 1.19 | 2.1 – 2.52 |
| 2028 | 2.58 | 4.51 | 0.64 | 2.16 – 3 |
| 2030 | 2.71 | 5.21 | 0.21 | 2.11 – 3.31 |
| 2035 | 2.82 | 6.35 | 0 | 1.82 – 3.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.43typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.8bn | 114.7bn | 56.9bn | 80bn – 91.6bn |
| 2028 | 86.3bn | 136.4bn | 36.3bn | 74.5bn – 98.1bn |
| 2030 | 86.8bn | 151.4bn | 22.2bn | 70bn – 103.7bn |
| 2035 | 88.1bn | 179.5bn | 0 | 60bn – 116.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead86.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.38 | 2.1 | 0.65 | 1.24 – 1.51 |
| 2028 | 1.08 | 2.34 | 0 | 0.84 – 1.32 |
| 2030 | 0.78 | 2.41 | 0 | 0.46 – 1.11 |
| 2035 | 0.05 | 2.34 | 0 | 0 – 0.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.72typical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/VNM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 |
| 1.67 |
| 2025 (3.31) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 1.5803 + 0.026·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.838 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.67 | 2025 (1.52) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -5.6202 + 6.7558·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.814 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.33 | 2023 (1.65) |
| 2027 | 38.8 | 2024 (1.6) |
| 2028 | 39.66 | 2025 (1.52) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 56.2522 + -10.8942·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.763 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 205.8bn | 2023 (34.3) |
| 2027 | 157bn | 2024 (31.2) |
| 2028 | 146bn | 2025 (30.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -333969386390.4352 + 15737010757.1881·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.667 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.73 | 2025 (514.7bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -3.9617 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/VNM?indicator= · API docs
