Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Vanuatu: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2032, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Vanuatu's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.897 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 987m | 2024 (4.99) |
Latest observed-6.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.09 | 10.19 | -26.36 | -11.95 – -4.23 |
| 2028 | -12.26 | 19.39 | -30 | -19.31 – -5.21 |
| 2030 | -16.43 | 24.43 | -30 | -26.09 – -6.78 |
| 2035 | -26.87 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -10.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-7.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.79typical miss · 1 realized · 28% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.35(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23.13 | 42.42 | 6.42 | 20.01 – 26.26 |
| 2027 | 18.69 | 52.1 | 0 | 13.03 – 24.36 |
| 2029 | 14.26 | 57.38 | 0 | 6.96 – 21.56 |
| 2034 | 3.17 | 64.15 | 0 | 0 – 12.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±25.22typical miss · 1 realized · 89% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.5bn | 1.7bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.6bn |
| 2030 | 1.7bn | 1.9bn | 1.5bn | 1.5bn – 1.8bn |
| 2035 | 2bn | 2.3bn | 1.7bn | 1.6bn – 2.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±17.3mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.77 | 9.79 | -3.32 | 1.55 – 3.98 |
| 2028 | 2.32 | 12 | -8.21 | 0.19 – 4.46 |
| 2030 | 1.88 | 12 | -10 | -0.88 – 4.65 |
| 2035 | 0.78 | 12 | -10 | -3.08 – 4.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.78· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.73typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.1k | 4.4k | 3.9k | 4k – 4.3k |
| 2028 | 4.3k | 4.8k | 3.9k | 4k – 4.7k |
| 2030 | 4.5k | 5.2k | 4k | 4k – 5.1k |
| 2035 | 5.1k | 6k | 4.3k | 4k – 6.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±70.65typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.77 | 43.1 | 27.32 | 34.08 – 37.47 |
| 2028 | 34.92 | 47.61 | 20.29 | 31.3 – 38.55 |
| 2030 | 34.07 | 50.45 | 15.18 | 28.83 – 39.32 |
| 2035 | 31.95 | 55.11 | 5.22 | 23.27 – 40.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36.27· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.83typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.03(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 47.58 | 52.92 | 42.24 | 46 – 49.16 |
| 2027 | 46.67 | 55.91 | 37.42 | 43.01 – 50.32 |
| 2029 | 45.75 | 57.69 | 33.81 | 40.26 – 51.24 |
| 2034 | 43.47 | 60.36 | 26.58 | 33.93 – 53.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.83typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.22 | 12.13 | -5 | -1.22 – 3.66 |
| 2028 | 0.53 | 19.45 | -5 | -3.71 – 4.77 |
| 2030 | -0.15 | 24.27 | -5 | -5 – 5.34 |
| 2035 | -1.85 | 32.68 | -5 | -5 – 6.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.58typical miss · 1 realized · 57% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.37(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.66 | 33.85 | 18.56 | 24.08 – 27.24 |
| 2027 | 28.9 | 43.08 | 16.61 | 25.48 – 32.31 |
| 2029 | 32.13 | 50.44 | 16.27 | 26.95 – 37.32 |
| 2034 | 40.22 | 66.11 | 17.78 | 30.09 – 50.36 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.17· skill-weighted across models
Track record±20.71typical miss · 1 realized · 100% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed335.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 333.2k | 349k | 318.6k | 322.9k – 343.6k |
| 2028 | 341.4k | 357.5k | 326.4k | 316.1k – 366.6k |
| 2030 | 349.5k | 366k | 334.2k | 309.8k – 389.2k |
| 2035 | 369.8k | 387.3k | 353.6k | 293.1k – 446.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead348.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.8ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.47 | 12.78 | -8.76 | -1.09 – 2.02 |
| 2028 | 0.13 | 15 | -10 | -2.58 – 2.85 |
| 2030 | -0.2 | 15 | -10 | -3.72 – 3.32 |
| 2035 | -1.04 | 15 | -10 | -6.08 – 3.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.37typical miss · 1 realized · 339% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed614.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 617.3m | 709.3m | 525.4m | 593.4m – 641.3m |
| 2027 | 628.8m | 788m | 469.5m | 574.2m – 683.3m |
| 2029 | 640.2m | 845.8m | 434.6m | 557.5m – 722.9m |
| 2034 | 668.8m | 959.5m | 378m | 517.3m – 820.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead617.3m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.6(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 11.62 | 14.97 | 8.27 | 10.92 – 12.32 |
| 2025 | 10.46 | 16.27 | 4.65 | 9.07 – 11.85 |
| 2027 | 9.89 | 17.39 | 2.39 | 7.95 – 11.83 |
| 2032 | 9.44 | 20.04 | 0 | 6.3 – 12.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.25· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed614.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 617.3m | 709.3m | 525.4m | 593.4m – 641.3m |
| 2027 | 628.8m | 788m | 469.5m | 574.2m – 683.3m |
| 2029 | 640.2m | 845.8m | 434.6m | 557.5m – 722.9m |
| 2034 | 668.8m | 959.5m | 378m | 517.3m – 820.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead617.3m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.24 | 5.81 | 4.66 | 5.06 – 5.41 |
| 2028 | 5.56 | 6.55 | 4.57 | 5.14 – 5.98 |
| 2030 | 5.89 | 7.17 | 4.61 | 5.22 – 6.56 |
| 2035 | 6.7 | 8.51 | 4.9 | 5.31 – 8.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.17· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/VUT · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 969.8m | 2025 (5.07) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1993650896.8855 + -201821280.8589·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.877 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.51 | 2025 (1.4bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 8.9173 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.665 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.45 | 2023 (1.2bn) |
| 2027 | 42.57 | 2024 (1.3bn) |
| 2028 | 43.64 | 2025 (1.4bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 17.5468 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.629 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -12.94 | 2024 (1.3bn) |
| 2027 | -13.64 | 2025 (1.4bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 3.2521 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/VUT?indicator= · API docs
