Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Vanuatu: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -9.77 | 6.59 | -26.13 | -13.26 – -6.27 |
| 2029 | -12.3 | 16.04 | -30 | -18.68 – -5.93 |
| 2031 | -14.84 | 21.75 | -30 | -23.49 – -6.19 |
| 2036 | -21.18 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -7.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.43(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3.15 | 28.88 | 0 | 0 – 6.87 |
| 2025 | 0 | 44.57 | 0 | 0 – 6.42 |
| 2027 | 0 | 57.54 | 0 | 0 – 8.3 |
| 2032 | 0 | 81.38 | 0 | 0 – 11.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2029 | 1.6bn | 1.9bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 1.8bn |
| 2031 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.6bn | 1.6bn – 2bn |
| 2036 | 2.3bn | 2.7bn | 1.9bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.94(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.41 | 11.44 | -1.68 | 3.17 – 5.66 |
| 2029 | 6.39 | 12 | -4.16 | 4.05 – 8.72 |
| 2031 | 8.36 | 12 | -5.26 | 5.07 – 11.65 |
| 2036 | 12 | 12 | -7.26 | 6.38 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.2k | 4.7k | 3.9k | 4.1k – 4.4k |
| 2029 | 4.6k | 5.4k | 4k | 4.3k – 5k |
| 2031 | 5k | 6k | 4.2k | 4.4k – 5.6k |
| 2036 | 6k | 7.4k | 4.8k | 4.7k – 7.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 42.96 | 47.94 | 37.21 | 41.5 – 44.41 |
| 2029 | 42.47 | 51.1 | 32.51 | 39.1 – 45.84 |
| 2031 | 41.98 | 53.13 | 29.12 | 36.91 – 47.06 |
| 2036 | 40.77 | 56.53 | 22.58 | 31.82 – 49.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.17(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 52.52 | 59.05 | 45.99 | 50.68 – 54.36 |
| 2025 | 49.21 | 60.52 | 37.9 | 45.12 – 53.31 |
| 2027 | 45.9 | 60.51 | 31.3 | 40 – 51.81 |
| 2032 | 37.63 | 58.29 | 16.98 | 28.45 – 46.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.18(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.23 | 16.21 | -5 | 2.71 – 7.75 |
| 2029 | 8.59 | 27.61 | -5 | 3.96 – 13.22 |
| 2031 | 11.95 | 36.5 | -5 | 5.55 – 18.35 |
| 2036 | 20.35 | 50 | -5 | 9.4 – 31.3 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.87(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 41.33 | 57.31 | 27.47 | 38.38 – 44.27 |
| 2025 | 49.11 | 70 | 25.12 | 42.8 – 55.42 |
| 2027 | 56.9 | 70 | 25.92 | 47.24 – 66.55 |
| 2032 | 70 | 70 | 26.19 | 51.58 – 70 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed327.8k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 340.3k | 356.4k | 325.4k | 329.8k – 350.9k |
| 2029 | 349.1k | 365.6k | 333.8k | 323.3k – 375k |
| 2031 | 357.9k | 374.8k | 342.2k | 317.3k – 398.6k |
| 2036 | 379.9k | 397.9k | 363.3k | 301.1k – 458.7k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.74(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -1.67 | 9.96 | -10 | -3.15 – -0.19 |
| 2027 | -1.63 | 15 | -10 | -4.23 – 0.96 |
| 2029 | -1.6 | 15 | -10 | -4.97 – 1.78 |
| 2034 | -1.51 | 15 | -10 | -6.34 – 3.33 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.24 | 5.81 | 4.66 | 5.06 – 5.41 |
| 2028 | 5.56 | 6.55 | 4.57 | 5.14 – 5.98 |
| 2030 | 5.89 | 7.17 | 4.61 | 5.22 – 6.56 |
| 2035 | 6.7 | 8.51 | 4.9 | 5.31 – 8.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-06-22 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/VUT · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
