Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
WEQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, WEQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.926 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.49 | 2025 (86.3) |
Latest observed2.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.43 | 4.46 | 0.39 | 1.97 – 2.88 |
| 2028 | 2.48 | 5.99 | -1.04 | 1.64 – 3.31 |
| 2030 | 2.53 | 7.07 | -2.02 | 1.4 – 3.65 |
| 2035 | 2.65 | 9.07 | -3.77 | 0.92 – 4.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.13typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.9T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.1T | 27.5T | 23.1T | 24.4T – 25.9T |
| 2028 | 27.5T | 31.6T | 24T | 25.5T – 29.5T |
| 2030 | 29.9T | 35.1T | 25.3T | 26.5T – 33.2T |
| 2035 | 35.8T | 43.2T | 29.3T | 28.3T – 43.2T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±764.6bntypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.75 | 12 | -9.17 | -0.38 – 3.88 |
| 2028 | 2.65 | 12 | -10 | -1.11 – 6.42 |
| 2030 | 3.56 | 12 | -10 | -1.42 – 8.54 |
| 2035 | 5.83 | 12 | -10 | -1.74 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.45typical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.3k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.4k | 62.9k | 52.7k | 55.7k – 59.2k |
| 2028 | 62.4k | 71.8k | 54.1k | 57.7k – 67k |
| 2030 | 67.3k | 79.5k | 56.7k | 59.6k – 74.9k |
| 2035 | 79.6k | 96.9k | 64.6k | 63.1k – 96.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead61.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.8ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed86.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 86.53 | 95.48 | 76.2 | 83.76 – 89.29 |
| 2028 | 86.98 | 102.48 | 69.09 | 80.42 – 93.54 |
| 2030 | 87.43 | 107.44 | 64.33 | 77.35 – 97.5 |
| 2035 | 88.55 | 116.86 | 55.9 | 70.03 – 107.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead86.34· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.33typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.47 | 9.15 | -4.69 | 0.95 – 3.99 |
| 2028 | 2.33 | 13.9 | -5 | -0.35 – 5.01 |
| 2030 | 2.19 | 17.13 | -5 | -1.3 – 5.68 |
| 2035 | 1.84 | 22.96 | -5 | -3.14 – 6.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.43typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed437m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 435m | 455.5m | 415.9m | 421.5m – 448.4m |
| 2028 | 436.5m | 457.1m | 417.3m | 404.2m – 468.7m |
| 2030 | 438m | 458.7m | 418.7m | 388.2m – 487.7m |
| 2035 | 441.7m | 462.6m | 422.3m | 350.1m – 533.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead438.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/WEQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -4.4988 + 0.081·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.907 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92.04 | 2023 (21.3T) |
| 2027 | 94.45 | 2024 (22.4T) |
| 2028 | 98.77 | 2025 (24.2T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 41.3781 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.771 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.1T | 2025 (2.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 8810554771051.633 + 3884698865357.9097·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.52 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.49 | 2025 (24.2T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 5.9771 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/WEQ?indicator= · API docs
