Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
WHQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, WHQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.963 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 135.57 | 2023 (36.7T) |
Latest observed-3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.37 | -2.54 | -4.2 | -3.6 – -3.15 |
| 2028 | -3.72 | -2.28 | -5.15 | -4.19 – -3.25 |
| 2030 | -4.06 | -2.21 | -5.92 | -4.77 – -3.36 |
| 2035 | -4.93 | -2.3 | -7.55 | -6.25 – -3.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.37typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.5T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42T | 45T | 39.3T | 40.7T – 43.3T |
| 2028 | 46T | 51.3T | 41.4T | 42.6T – 49.4T |
| 2030 | 50T | 56.9T | 44.1T | 44.4T – 55.7T |
| 2035 | 60.1T | 69.8T | 51.8T | 47.7T – 72.6T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.6T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.5Ttypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5 | 12 | -5.95 | 0.84 – 4.17 |
| 2028 | 2.72 | 12 | -10 | -0.22 – 5.67 |
| 2030 | 2.94 | 12 | -10 | -0.93 – 6.81 |
| 2035 | 3.48 | 12 | -10 | -2.21 – 9.18 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.78· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.3typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.6k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.1k | 43.1k | 37.5k | 38.9k – 41.3k |
| 2028 | 43.5k | 48.8k | 38.9k | 40.3k – 46.7k |
| 2030 | 46.9k | 53.7k | 41k | 41.6k – 52.2k |
| 2035 | 55.4k | 65k | 47k | 43.9k – 66.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed115.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 116.72 | 131.33 | 99.85 | 112.6 – 120.83 |
| 2028 | 120.95 | 146.27 | 91.74 | 111.25 – 130.66 |
| 2030 | 125.19 | 157.87 | 87.48 | 110.15 – 140.23 |
| 2035 | 135.78 | 182 | 82.45 | 106.95 – 164.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead117.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.12typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.04 | 8.75 | -3.08 | 1.72 – 4.35 |
| 2028 | -0.88 | 9.01 | -5 | -3.12 – 1.36 |
| 2030 | -4.8 | 7.97 | -5 | -5 – -1.59 |
| 2035 | -5 | 13.05 | -5 | -5 – -0.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.46typical miss · 1 realized · 32% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1bn | 1.1bn | 993.4m | 1bn – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1bn | 1.1bn | 1bn | 969.2m – 1.1bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 1.1bn | 1bn | 934.6m – 1.2bn |
| 2035 | 1.1bn | 1.1bn | 1bn | 850.7m – 1.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.6mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/WHQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 141.36 | 2024 (38.5T) |
| 2028 | 147.28 | 2025 (40.4T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 18.1165 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.943 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.7T | 2023 (110.5) |
| 2027 | 35.3T | 2024 (112.1) |
| 2028 | 36.1T | 2025 (114.6) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -566636321816.5078 + 319518551951.6376·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.669 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.76 | 2024 (6.9) |
| 2027 | -2.86 | 2025 (4.1) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -3.015 + 0.0376·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.626 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.56 | 2023 (36.7T) |
| 2027 | -12.56 | 2024 (38.5T) |
| 2028 | -14.61 | 2025 (40.4T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 30.066 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/WHQ?indicator= · API docs
