Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Samoa: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Samoa's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.735 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.93 | 2024 (1.2bn) |
Latest observed-1.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.91 | 14.35 | -16.18 | -4.04 – 2.22 |
| 2029 | 0.46 | 26.9 | -25.98 | -4.98 – 5.91 |
| 2031 | 1.84 | 30 | -30 | -5.27 – 8.95 |
| 2036 | 5.28 | 30 | -30 | -5.42 – 15.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.59· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.89 | 46.34 | 10.03 | 23.68 – 30.1 |
| 2028 | 25.43 | 59.13 | 0 | 19.4 – 31.47 |
| 2030 | 23.97 | 67.47 | 0 | 15.84 – 32.11 |
| 2035 | 20.33 | 81.85 | 0 | 8.29 – 32.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.44· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.73typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2029 | 1.6bn | 1.9bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 1.8bn |
| 2031 | 1.8bn | 2.2bn | 1.6bn | 1.6bn – 2.1bn |
| 2036 | 2.3bn | 2.8bn | 1.9bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.17 | 12 | -10 | 0.32 – 6.02 |
| 2029 | 3 | 12 | -10 | -1.99 – 7.99 |
| 2031 | 2.84 | 12 | -10 | -3.65 – 9.32 |
| 2036 | 2.42 | 12 | -10 | -6.81 – 11.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.8k | 7.5k | 6.2k | 6.6k – 7k |
| 2029 | 7.7k | 9k | 6.6k | 7.1k – 8.3k |
| 2031 | 8.6k | 10.2k | 7.2k | 7.6k – 9.6k |
| 2036 | 10.9k | 13.2k | 8.9k | 8.6k – 13.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 13.48 | 20.19 | 5.73 | 12.23 – 14.72 |
| 2029 | 6.23 | 17.85 | 0 | 4.14 – 8.32 |
| 2031 | 0 | 15.01 | 0 | 0 – 2.39 |
| 2036 | 0 | 21.22 | 0 | 0 – 3.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.66· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.95 | 50.21 | 35.7 | 41.16 – 44.75 |
| 2028 | 42.84 | 55.41 | 30.27 | 38.86 – 46.82 |
| 2030 | 42.73 | 58.95 | 26.5 | 36.82 – 48.63 |
| 2035 | 42.44 | 65.39 | 19.49 | 32.14 – 52.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.73typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.77 | 12.01 | -5 | 0.68 – 4.87 |
| 2029 | 3.18 | 19.18 | -5 | -0.52 – 6.88 |
| 2031 | 3.58 | 24.24 | -5 | -1.29 – 8.45 |
| 2036 | 4.59 | 33.81 | -5 | -2.62 – 11.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.05· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.23 | 31.18 | 25.67 | 27.35 – 29.1 |
| 2028 | 26.83 | 31.94 | 22.4 | 24.81 – 28.85 |
| 2030 | 25.43 | 32.03 | 19.72 | 22.46 – 28.41 |
| 2035 | 21.94 | 31.27 | 13.86 | 17.1 – 26.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.62typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed219.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 211.9k | 221.9k | 202.6k | 205.3k – 218.4k |
| 2029 | 204.9k | 214.6k | 195.9k | 189.8k – 220.1k |
| 2031 | 198k | 208.8k | 188k | 175.5k – 220.5k |
| 2036 | 180.7k | 195.9k | 166.5k | 143.2k – 218.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead214k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.14 | 15 | -8.16 | 2.02 – 6.26 |
| 2028 | 3.56 | 15 | -10 | -0.16 – 7.28 |
| 2030 | 2.98 | 15 | -10 | -1.84 – 7.81 |
| 2035 | 1.54 | 15 | -10 | -5.19 – 8.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.2typical miss · 1 realized · 50% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed593.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 655.7m | 735.3m | 576.2m | 633.1m – 678.4m |
| 2028 | 810.5m | 948.2m | 672.7m | 750.5m – 870.4m |
| 2030 | 965.2m | 1.1bn | 787.3m | 855.6m – 1.1bn |
| 2035 | 1.4bn | 1.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.1bn – 1.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead655.3m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.71 | 13.4 | 8.01 | 10.12 – 11.29 |
| 2028 | 8.73 | 13.39 | 4.07 | 7.6 – 9.86 |
| 2030 | 7.76 | 13.78 | 1.74 | 6.22 – 9.3 |
| 2035 | 6.99 | 15.5 | 0 | 4.57 – 9.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.37· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed598.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 661.8m | 742.3m | 581.3m | 638.9m – 684.7m |
| 2028 | 818.8m | 958.2m | 679.4m | 758.1m – 879.4m |
| 2030 | 975.7m | 1.2bn | 795.8m | 864.9m – 1.1bn |
| 2035 | 1.4bn | 1.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.1bn – 1.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead661.1m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.48 | 5.75 | 3.22 | 4.22 – 4.75 |
| 2028 | 3.46 | 5.65 | 1.27 | 2.96 – 3.96 |
| 2030 | 2.44 | 5.26 | 0 | 1.81 – 3.06 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.99 | 0 | 0 – 0.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.83· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/WSM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 9.5 | 2025 (1.3bn) |
| 2028 | 9.95 | 2026 (1.4bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.9689 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.679 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 566.8m | 2024 (4.86) |
| 2028 | 581.6m | 2025 (5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 56049360.1961 + 105203957.9213·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/WSM?indicator= · API docs
