Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Samoa: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Samoa's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.768 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 545.3m | 2023 (4.92) |
Latest observed5.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.08 | 20.44 | -8.27 | 3.06 – 9.11 |
| 2028 | 6.85 | 30 | -18.02 | 1.45 – 12.25 |
| 2030 | 7.62 | 30 | -24.49 | 0.46 – 14.78 |
| 2035 | 9.53 | 30 | -30 | -1.26 – 20.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.48typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.89 | 46.34 | 10.03 | 23.68 – 30.1 |
| 2028 | 25.43 | 59.13 | 0 | 19.4 – 31.47 |
| 2030 | 23.97 | 67.47 | 0 | 15.84 – 32.11 |
| 2035 | 20.33 | 81.85 | 0 | 8.29 – 32.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.44· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.73typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.2bn | 1.3bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.6bn | 1.8bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 1.7bn |
| 2030 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.5bn | 1.6bn – 2bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 2.8bn | 1.9bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±25.2mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.58 | 12 | -10 | -1.27 – 4.42 |
| 2028 | -3.55 | 12 | -10 | -8.61 – 1.51 |
| 2030 | -8.67 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -1.67 |
| 2035 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 0.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.18typical miss · 1 realized · 294% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2k | 6.9k | 5.6k | 6k – 6.4k |
| 2028 | 7.1k | 8.3k | 6.1k | 6.6k – 7.6k |
| 2030 | 7.9k | 9.5k | 6.6k | 7k – 8.8k |
| 2035 | 10.1k | 12.3k | 8.2k | 8k – 12.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±78.55typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.2 | 24.89 | 10.47 | 16.87 – 19.52 |
| 2028 | 12.19 | 23.79 | 0 | 9.82 – 14.56 |
| 2030 | 6.18 | 21.15 | 0 | 3.38 – 8.98 |
| 2035 | 0 | 21.18 | 0 | 0 – 3.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.25· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.4typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.95 | 50.21 | 35.7 | 41.16 – 44.75 |
| 2028 | 42.84 | 55.41 | 30.27 | 38.86 – 46.82 |
| 2030 | 42.73 | 58.95 | 26.5 | 36.82 – 48.63 |
| 2035 | 42.44 | 65.39 | 19.49 | 32.14 – 52.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.73typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.75 | 12.81 | -5 | 0.48 – 5.03 |
| 2028 | 2.81 | 20.24 | -5 | -1.19 – 6.81 |
| 2030 | 2.86 | 25.36 | -5 | -2.35 – 8.08 |
| 2035 | 3 | 34.82 | -5 | -4.53 – 10.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.66· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.35typical miss · 1 realized · 97% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.23 | 31.18 | 25.67 | 27.35 – 29.1 |
| 2028 | 26.83 | 31.94 | 22.4 | 24.81 – 28.85 |
| 2030 | 25.43 | 32.03 | 19.72 | 22.46 – 28.41 |
| 2035 | 21.94 | 31.27 | 13.86 | 17.1 – 26.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.62typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed219.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 218.9k | 229.2k | 209.3k | 212.1k – 225.7k |
| 2028 | 220.3k | 230.7k | 210.7k | 204k – 236.6k |
| 2030 | 221.7k | 232.2k | 212k | 196.6k – 246.9k |
| 2035 | 225.3k | 235.9k | 215.4k | 178.5k – 272k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead215.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.14 | 15 | -8.16 | 2.02 – 6.26 |
| 2028 | 3.56 | 15 | -10 | -0.16 – 7.28 |
| 2030 | 2.98 | 15 | -10 | -1.84 – 7.81 |
| 2035 | 1.54 | 15 | -10 | -5.19 – 8.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.2typical miss · 1 realized · 50% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed593.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 655.7m | 735.3m | 576.2m | 633.1m – 678.4m |
| 2028 | 810.5m | 948.2m | 672.7m | 750.5m – 870.4m |
| 2030 | 965.2m | 1.1bn | 787.3m | 855.6m – 1.1bn |
| 2035 | 1.4bn | 1.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.1bn – 1.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead655.3m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.71 | 13.4 | 8.01 | 10.12 – 11.29 |
| 2028 | 8.73 | 13.39 | 4.07 | 7.6 – 9.86 |
| 2030 | 7.76 | 13.78 | 1.74 | 6.22 – 9.3 |
| 2035 | 6.99 | 15.5 | 0 | 4.57 – 9.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.37· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed598.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 661.8m | 742.3m | 581.3m | 638.9m – 684.7m |
| 2028 | 818.8m | 958.2m | 679.4m | 758.1m – 879.4m |
| 2030 | 975.7m | 1.2bn | 795.8m | 864.9m – 1.1bn |
| 2035 | 1.4bn | 1.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.1bn – 1.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead661.1m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.48 | 5.75 | 3.22 | 4.22 – 4.75 |
| 2028 | 3.46 | 5.65 | 1.27 | 2.96 – 3.96 |
| 2030 | 2.44 | 5.26 | 0 | 1.81 – 3.06 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.99 | 0 | 0 – 0.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.83· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/WSM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 |
| 538.1m |
| 2024 (4.86) |
| 2028 | 553.6m | 2025 (5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 6423357.1089 + 109521216.4725·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.735 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.93 | 2024 (1.2bn) |
| 2027 | 9.5 | 2025 (1.3bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.9689 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.503 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.83 | 2023 (-3.8) |
| 2027 | 52.96 | 2024 (4.4) |
| 2028 | 54.41 | 2025 (5.7) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 48.0641 + 1.1131·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/WSM?indicator= · API docs
