Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Yemen, Rep.: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Yemen, Rep.'s strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.861 over 9 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.7bn | 2023 (-18.3) |
Latest observed-3.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.35 | 21.38 | -26.08 | -7.23 – 2.53 |
| 2028 | 6.54 | 30 | -30 | -2.16 – 15.24 |
| 2030 | 15.44 | 30 | -30 | 3.37 – 27.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 9.89 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.95typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.76(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5.28 | 15.56 | 0 | 3.73 – 6.83 |
| 2021 | 0 | 17.8 | 0 | 0 – 2.59 |
| 2023 | 0 | 22.98 | 0 | 0 – 3.36 |
| 2028 | 0 | 32.51 | 0 | 0 – 4.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.78· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.6bn(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.8bn | 13bn | 1.5bn | 6bn – 7.7bn |
| 2028 | 4.3bn | 15bn | 0 | 2.9bn – 5.8bn |
| 2030 | 1.8bn | 15.6bn | 0 | 45.5m – 3.6bn |
| 2035 | 0 | 19.4bn | 0 | 0 – 2.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.75(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.82 | 12 | -10 | -0.5 – 4.14 |
| 2028 | 6.51 | 12 | -10 | 2.23 – 10.79 |
| 2030 | 11.2 | 12 | -10 | 5.19 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.84 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.18· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.32typical miss · 1 realized · 221% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed633.89(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 365.6 | 581.32 | 178.64 | 334.07 – 397.13 |
| 2028 | 238.87 | 612.51 | 0 | 182.92 – 294.82 |
| 2030 | 112.14 | 594.52 | 0 | 45.75 – 178.54 |
| 2035 | 0 | 682.18 | 0 | 0 – 81.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead578.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±201.25typical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.32(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 48.14 | 61.72 | 34.56 | 45.29 – 50.99 |
| 2021 | 49.79 | 73.31 | 26.27 | 43.8 – 55.78 |
| 2023 | 51.43 | 81.8 | 21.07 | 42.67 – 60.19 |
| 2028 | 55.54 | 98.49 | 12.6 | 40.08 – 71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.18· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.1(2014)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.46 | 50 | -5 | 8.5 – 26.42 |
| 2028 | 8.5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 23.94 |
| 2030 | -0.46 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 19.02 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 23.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.17· skill-weighted across models
Track record±12.46typical miss · 1 realized · 249% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.18(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 6.59 | 12.5 | 1.48 | 5.65 – 7.54 |
| 2021 | 7.58 | 17.8 | 0 | 5.76 – 9.41 |
| 2023 | 8.57 | 21.77 | 0 | 6 – 11.14 |
| 2028 | 11.05 | 29.71 | 0 | 6.61 – 15.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.09· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.5m | 43.4m | 39.6m | 40.2m – 42.8m |
| 2028 | 42.8m | 44.8m | 40.9m | 39.6m – 45.9m |
| 2030 | 44.1m | 46.2m | 42.2m | 39.1m – 49.1m |
| 2035 | 47.4m | 49.6m | 45.3m | 37.5m – 57.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±22.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 114% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.2bn | 3.3bn | 0 | 911.4m – 1.6bn |
| 2025 | 1.2bn | 4.7bn | 0 | 601.9m – 1.8bn |
| 2027 | 1.2bn | 5.7bn | 0 | 366.2m – 1.9bn |
| 2032 | 1bn | 7.5bn | 0 | 0 – 2.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.22(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2.3 | 3.88 | 0.72 | 2.02 – 2.58 |
| 2019 | 3.59 | 6.33 | 0.86 | 3 – 4.18 |
| 2021 | 4.22 | 7.76 | 0.69 | 3.34 – 5.1 |
| 2026 | 4.73 | 9.72 | 0 | 3.21 – 6.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.5· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.2bn | 3.3bn | 0 | 911.4m – 1.6bn |
| 2025 | 1.2bn | 4.7bn | 0 | 601.9m – 1.8bn |
| 2027 | 1.2bn | 5.7bn | 0 | 366.2m – 1.9bn |
| 2032 | 1bn | 7.5bn | 0 | 0 – 2.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.11 | 18.15 | 16.06 | 16.58 – 17.64 |
| 2028 | 16.68 | 18.49 | 14.87 | 15.44 – 17.91 |
| 2030 | 16.25 | 18.59 | 13.91 | 14.4 – 18.09 |
| 2035 | 15.18 | 18.49 | 11.87 | 12.03 – 18.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.24· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/YEM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 20.5bn | 2024 (-10.7) |
| 2028 | 22bn | 2025 (-6.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 24480407338.7611 + 371628067.0612·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.739 over 9 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.92 | 2023 (-18.3) |
| 2027 | 18.14 | 2024 (-10.7) |
| 2028 | 18.26 | 2025 (-6.8) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 18.4525 + 0.029·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.551 over 12 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -27.28 | 2025 (17.32) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 60.1024 + -5.0444·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.546 over 11 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.86 | 2025 (-6.8) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -13.1575 + -0.338·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/YEM?indicator= · API docs
