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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

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World/Sentiment/China

Sentiment

China — sentiment

Two reads side by side: the OBSERVED OECD Consumer Confidence survey (how people feel) and the soft-vs-hard DIVERGENCE against the derived macro fundamentals (what the data says). Observed values are real and sourced; the divergence is a transparent comparison of two disclosed scores — never a forecast, and an absent series is shown honestly.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

By aspect

Composite + macro dimensions

The derived sentiment composite and the aspects driving it (growth, inflation, labour, fiscal, external). GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=dimensions.

Composite sentiment · derived
+0.44supportiveNormal

Macro stress 28/100 · sentiment scale −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive) · ⓘ How this score works

Confidence: High
As of 2025-12-31
By aspect — China’s macro dimensions
GrowthNormal
+0.90supportive

Stress 5/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Momentum

Sentiment trajectory

Derived sentiment recomputed per year of held macro history — the direction of travel, not a forecast. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/history.

Sentiment trajectory · 1981–2025
+0.48Deteriorating

Derived sentiment, −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive)

Span change

−0.21

Latest step

−0.01

Years

Outlook

Forward sentiment · 2026

The sentiment composite projected from the prediction engine's baseline forecasts — a projection, not observed. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=forecast.

Outlook · 2026 · projection
+0.48supportiveNormal

Projected macro stress 26/100

Change vs now

+0.04 sentiment

-2 stress

GrowthNormal

Projected 4.86 · stress 5/100

InflationNormal

Projected 0.04 · stress 5/100

LabourWatch

Survey vs fundamentals

Survey + divergence

Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/survey and /divergence.

Survey heldledger 51018ed

China: consumer confidence is 95.42532 (below-trend pessimism); soft vs hard sentiment is divergent — confidence behind fundamentals.

Consumer confidence (survey)

Observed
OECD Consumer Confidence Index
95.43

Alerts

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We'll email you when this economy's derived sentiment crosses your threshold (−1 stressed … +1 supportive). Edge-triggered — one email when it crosses, not while it stays past the line.

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Inflation
Normal
+0.90supportive

Stress 5/100 · as of 2025-12-31

LabourWatch
+0.04balanced

Stress 48/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Debt / fiscalElevated
−0.40cautious

Stress 70/100 · as of 2025-12-31

ExternalNormal
+0.60supportive

Stress 20/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Each aspect is a single macro-pressure driver — a narrow proxy, not a multi-signal sector model.

45

Confidence

High

AI read

Projected 4.55 · stress 39/100

Debt / fiscalElevated

Projected 104.62 · stress 66/100

ExternalNormal

Projected 4.08 · stress 26/100

Projection · not observedDerived from the prediction engine’s baseline projections for 5/5 drivers · High confidence.
AI read

OECD SDMX API

Below-trend pessimismvs 100 long-run trend
MoM ▼−0.043m ▼−0.27YoY ▲+0.38

Consumer confidence in China is 95.43 — below the 100 long-run trend (below-trend pessimism) and broadly flat.

Soft vs hard divergence

Derived
DivergentConfidence behind fundamentalsconf high
Soft (survey)
-0.91

CCI 95.43 · pessimistic

Hard (macro)
+0.44

supportive · pressure 28

Gap (soft − hard)
-1.35

>0 = confidence ahead

DIVERGENCE for China: consumers are gloomier than the macro fundamentals justify (confidence lagging behind the hard data).

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/CHN/survey · /divergence · Full brief → · API docs