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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

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World/Sentiment/Germany

Sentiment

Germany — sentiment

Two reads side by side: the OBSERVED OECD Consumer Confidence survey (how people feel) and the soft-vs-hard DIVERGENCE against the derived macro fundamentals (what the data says). Observed values are real and sourced; the divergence is a transparent comparison of two disclosed scores — never a forecast, and an absent series is shown honestly.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

By aspect

Composite + macro dimensions

The derived sentiment composite and the aspects driving it (growth, inflation, labour, fiscal, external). GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=dimensions.

Composite sentiment · derived
+0.22balancedWatch

Macro stress 39/100 · sentiment scale −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive) · ⓘ How this score works

Confidence: High
As of 2025-12-31
By aspect — Germany’s macro dimensions
GrowthWatch
+0.02balanced

Stress 49/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Momentum

Sentiment trajectory

Derived sentiment recomputed per year of held macro history — the direction of travel, not a forecast. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/history.

Sentiment trajectory · 1961–2025
+0.22Deteriorating

Derived sentiment, −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive)

Outlook

Forward sentiment · 2026

The sentiment composite projected from the prediction engine's baseline forecasts — a projection, not observed. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=forecast.

Outlook · 2026 · projection
+0.24balancedWatch

Projected macro stress 38/100

Change vs now

+0.02 sentiment

-1 stress

GrowthWatch

Projected 0.64 · stress 52/100

InflationNormal

Projected 2.46 · stress 30/100

LabourNormal

Survey vs fundamentals

Survey + divergence

Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/survey and /divergence.

Survey heldledger 51018ed

Germany: consumer confidence is 98.628 (below-trend pessimism); soft vs hard sentiment is divergent — confidence behind fundamentals.

Consumer confidence (survey)

Observed
OECD Consumer Confidence Index
98.63

Alerts

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We'll email you when this economy's derived sentiment crosses your threshold (−1 stressed … +1 supportive). Edge-triggered — one email when it crosses, not while it stays past the line.

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Inflation
Normal
+0.62supportive

Stress 19/100 · as of 2025-12-31

LabourWatch
+0.18balanced

Stress 41/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Debt / fiscalWatch
+0.10balanced

Stress 45/100 · as of 2025-12-31

ExternalNormal
+0.36supportive

Stress 32/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Each aspect is a single macro-pressure driver — a narrow proxy, not a multi-signal sector model.

Span change

−0.45

Latest step

+0.03

Years

65

Confidence

High

AI read

Projected 3.67 · stress 32/100

Debt / fiscalWatch

Projected 62.68 · stress 37/100

ExternalNormal

Projected 3.88 · stress 27/100

Projection · not observedDerived from the prediction engine’s baseline projections for 5/5 drivers · High confidence.
AI read

OECD SDMX API

Below-trend pessimismvs 100 long-run trend
MoM ▲+0.13m ▼−0.3YoY ▼−1.16

Consumer confidence in Germany is 98.63 — below the 100 long-run trend (below-trend pessimism) and broadly flat.

Soft vs hard divergence

Derived
DivergentConfidence behind fundamentalsconf high
Soft (survey)
-0.27

CCI 98.63 · pessimistic

Hard (macro)
+0.22

balanced · pressure 39

Gap (soft − hard)
-0.49

>0 = confidence ahead

DIVERGENCE for Germany: consumers are gloomier than the macro fundamentals justify (confidence lagging behind the hard data).

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/DEU/survey · /divergence · Full brief → · API docs