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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

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World/Sentiment/United Kingdom

Sentiment

United Kingdom — sentiment

Two reads side by side: the OBSERVED OECD Consumer Confidence survey (how people feel) and the soft-vs-hard DIVERGENCE against the derived macro fundamentals (what the data says). Observed values are real and sourced; the divergence is a transparent comparison of two disclosed scores — never a forecast, and an absent series is shown honestly.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

By aspect

Composite + macro dimensions

The derived sentiment composite and the aspects driving it (growth, inflation, labour, fiscal, external). GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=dimensions.

Composite sentiment · derived
−0.08balancedWatch

Macro stress 54/100 · sentiment scale −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive) · ⓘ How this score works

Confidence: High
As of 2025-12-31
By aspect — United Kingdom’s macro dimensions
GrowthWatch
+0.30balanced

Stress 35/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Momentum

Sentiment trajectory

Derived sentiment recomputed per year of held macro history — the direction of travel, not a forecast. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/history.

Sentiment trajectory · 1961–2025
−0.01Deteriorating

Derived sentiment, −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive)

Outlook

Forward sentiment · 2026

The sentiment composite projected from the prediction engine's baseline forecasts — a projection, not observed. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=forecast.

Outlook · 2026 · projection
0.00balancedWatch

Projected macro stress 50/100

Change vs now

+0.08 sentiment

-4 stress

GrowthWatch

Projected 2.04 · stress 36/100

InflationWatch

Projected 4.43 · stress 54/100

LabourWatch

Survey vs fundamentals

Survey + divergence

Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/survey and /divergence.

Survey heldledger 51018ed

United Kingdom: consumer confidence is 98.18816 (below-trend pessimism); soft vs hard sentiment is mixed.

Consumer confidence (survey)

Observed
OECD Consumer Confidence Index
98.19

Alerts

Get notified

We'll email you when this economy's derived sentiment crosses your threshold (−1 stressed … +1 supportive). Edge-triggered — one email when it crosses, not while it stays past the line.

Sentiment alertsSign in to set sentiment alerts.

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Inflation
Elevated
−0.12cautious

Stress 56/100 · as of 2025-12-31

LabourWatch
+0.02balanced

Stress 49/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Debt / fiscalElevated
−0.46cautious

Stress 73/100 · as of 2025-12-31

ExternalStressed
−0.54stressed

Stress 77/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Each aspect is a single macro-pressure driver — a narrow proxy, not a multi-signal sector model.

Span change

−0.34

Latest step

−0.03

Years

65

Confidence

High

AI read

Projected 4.75 · stress 41/100

Debt / fiscalElevated

Projected 104.33 · stress 66/100

ExternalElevated

Projected -3.12 · stress 69/100

Projection · not observedDerived from the prediction engine’s baseline projections for 5/5 drivers · High confidence.
AI read

OECD SDMX API

Below-trend pessimismvs 100 long-run trend
MoM ◆03m ▼−0.57YoY ▼−1.14

Consumer confidence in United Kingdom is 98.19 — below the 100 long-run trend (below-trend pessimism) and falling.

Soft vs hard divergence

Derived
Mixedconf high
Soft (survey)
-0.36

CCI 98.19 · pessimistic

Hard (macro)
-0.08

balanced · pressure 54

Gap (soft − hard)
-0.28

>0 = confidence ahead

Soft and hard sentiment for United Kingdom are MIXED — one side is around its neutral reference, so there is no clear divergence.

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/GBR/survey · /divergence · Full brief → · API docs