PredictonomyPredictonomy
Home
Countries
Indicators
Sectors
Sentiment
Studios
Briefings
Methodology
Sign in
PredictonomyPredictonomy

Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Research and information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain.

Explore

  • Home
  • Countries
  • Indicators
  • Sectors
  • Sentiment
  • Studios
  • Briefings
  • Methodology
  • Global dashboard
  • Signals

Company

  • Pricing
  • Developers
  • Data status
  • About
  • Legal

Weekly newsletter

One email a week, every figure sourced from Predictonomy's own data. Learn more →

World/Sentiment/Poland

Sentiment

Poland — sentiment

Two reads side by side: the OBSERVED OECD Consumer Confidence survey (how people feel) and the soft-vs-hard DIVERGENCE against the derived macro fundamentals (what the data says). Observed values are real and sourced; the divergence is a transparent comparison of two disclosed scores — never a forecast, and an absent series is shown honestly.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

By aspect

Composite + macro dimensions

The derived sentiment composite and the aspects driving it (growth, inflation, labour, fiscal, external). GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=dimensions.

Composite sentiment · derived
+0.30balancedWatch

Macro stress 35/100 · sentiment scale −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive) · ⓘ How this score works

Confidence: High
As of 2025-12-31
By aspect — Poland’s macro dimensions
GrowthNormal
+0.82supportive

Stress 9/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Momentum

Sentiment trajectory

Derived sentiment recomputed per year of held macro history — the direction of travel, not a forecast. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/history.

Sentiment trajectory · 1980–2025
+0.36Improving

Derived sentiment, −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive)

Span change

+1.23

Latest step

+0.01

Years

Outlook

Forward sentiment · 2026

The sentiment composite projected from the prediction engine's baseline forecasts — a projection, not observed. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=forecast.

Outlook · 2026 · projection
+0.40supportiveNormal

Projected macro stress 30/100

Change vs now

+0.10 sentiment

-5 stress

GrowthNormal

Projected 4.68 · stress 5/100

InflationElevated

Projected 4.52 · stress 55/100

LabourNormal

Survey vs fundamentals

Survey + divergence

Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/survey and /divergence.

Survey heldledger 51018ed

Poland: consumer confidence is 100.6377 (above-trend optimism); soft vs hard sentiment is aligned.

Consumer confidence (survey)

Observed
OECD Consumer Confidence Index
100.64

Alerts

Get notified

We'll email you when this economy's derived sentiment crosses your threshold (−1 stressed … +1 supportive). Edge-triggered — one email when it crosses, not while it stays past the line.

Sentiment alertsSign in to set sentiment alerts.

Manage your alerts on your account.

Inflation
Elevated
−0.10balanced

Stress 55/100 · as of 2025-12-31

LabourWatch
+0.30supportive

Stress 35/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Debt / fiscalWatch
+0.16balanced

Stress 42/100 · as of 2025-12-31

ExternalElevated
−0.24cautious

Stress 62/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Each aspect is a single macro-pressure driver — a narrow proxy, not a multi-signal sector model.

46

Confidence

High

AI read

Projected 2.91 · stress 26/100

Debt / fiscalWatch

Projected 59.34 · stress 35/100

ExternalWatch

Projected -0.6 · stress 54/100

Projection · not observedDerived from the prediction engine’s baseline projections for 5/5 drivers · High confidence.
AI read

OECD SDMX API

Above-trend optimismvs 100 long-run trend
MoM ▲+0.153m ▲+0.16YoY ▲+0.01

Consumer confidence in Poland is 100.64 — above the 100 long-run trend (above-trend optimism) and broadly flat.

Soft vs hard divergence

Derived
Alignedconf high
Soft (survey)
+0.13

CCI 100.64 · optimistic

Hard (macro)
+0.30

balanced · pressure 35

Gap (soft − hard)
-0.17

>0 = confidence ahead

Soft (consumer confidence) and hard (macro fundamentals) sentiment AGREE for Poland — both point the same way.

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/POL/survey · /divergence · Full brief → · API docs