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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

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World/Sentiment/SMQ

Sentiment

SMQ — sentiment

Two reads side by side: the OBSERVED OECD Consumer Confidence survey (how people feel) and the soft-vs-hard DIVERGENCE against the derived macro fundamentals (what the data says). Observed values are real and sourced; the divergence is a transparent comparison of two disclosed scores — never a forecast, and an absent series is shown honestly.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

By aspect

Composite + macro dimensions

The derived sentiment composite and the aspects driving it (growth, inflation, labour, fiscal, external). GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=dimensions.

Composite sentiment · derived
+0.22balancedWatch

Macro stress 39/100 · sentiment scale −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive) · ⓘ How this score works

Confidence: Moderate
As of 2025-12-31
By aspect — SMQ’s macro dimensions
GrowthNormal
+0.66supportive

Stress 17/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Momentum

Sentiment trajectory

Derived sentiment recomputed per year of held macro history — the direction of travel, not a forecast. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/history.

Sentiment trajectory · 1980–2025
+0.21Deteriorating

Derived sentiment, −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive)

Span change

−0.39

Latest step

+0.03

Years

Outlook

Forward sentiment · 2026

The sentiment composite projected from the prediction engine's baseline forecasts — a projection, not observed. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=forecast.

Outlook · 2026 · projection
+0.28balancedWatch

Projected macro stress 36/100

Change vs now

+0.06 sentiment

-3 stress

GrowthNormal

Projected 3.5 · stress 18/100

Debt / fiscalWatch

Projected 84.2 · stress 52/100

ExternalElevated

Survey vs fundamentals

Survey + divergence

Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/survey and /divergence.

Survey not covered

No observed survey sentiment is currently held for SMQ.

Consumer confidence (survey)

Observed
Not coveredNot covered

No OECD Consumer Confidence Index is held for "SMQ" (OECD covers ~41 economies).

Would require: An ingested OECD Consumer Confidence Index series for this country (OECD covers ~41 economies).

Soft vs hard divergence

Derived

Alerts

Get notified

We'll email you when this economy's derived sentiment crosses your threshold (−1 stressed … +1 supportive). Edge-triggered — one email when it crosses, not while it stays past the line.

Sentiment alertsSign in to set sentiment alerts.

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Debt / fiscal
Elevated
−0.18cautious

Stress 59/100 · as of 2025-12-31

ExternalElevated
−0.36cautious

Stress 68/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Each aspect is a single macro-pressure driver — a narrow proxy, not a multi-signal sector model.

46

Confidence

Moderate

AI read

Projected -1.42 · stress 58/100

Projection · not observedDerived from the prediction engine’s baseline projections for 3/5 drivers (2 without a projection) · Moderate confidence.
AI read
Not covered
Not covered

No OECD Consumer Confidence Index is held for "SMQ" (the soft signal; OECD covers ~41 economies).

Would require: Both an ingested OECD Consumer Confidence Index series (OECD covers ~41 economies) AND a derivable macro-pressure sentiment (live growth/inflation/labour/fiscal/external) for this country.

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/SMQ/survey · /divergence · Full brief → · API docs