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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

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World/Sentiment/United States

Sentiment

United States — sentiment

Two reads side by side: the OBSERVED OECD Consumer Confidence survey (how people feel) and the soft-vs-hard DIVERGENCE against the derived macro fundamentals (what the data says). Observed values are real and sourced; the divergence is a transparent comparison of two disclosed scores — never a forecast, and an absent series is shown honestly.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

By aspect

Composite + macro dimensions

The derived sentiment composite and the aspects driving it (growth, inflation, labour, fiscal, external). GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=dimensions.

Composite sentiment · derived
−0.02balancedWatch

Macro stress 51/100 · sentiment scale −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive) · ⓘ How this score works

Confidence: High
As of 2025-12-31
By aspect — United States’s macro dimensions
GrowthWatch
+0.16balanced

Stress 42/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Momentum

Sentiment trajectory

Derived sentiment recomputed per year of held macro history — the direction of travel, not a forecast. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/history.

Sentiment trajectory · 1961–2025
+0.05Deteriorating

Derived sentiment, −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive)

Outlook

Forward sentiment · 2026

The sentiment composite projected from the prediction engine's baseline forecasts — a projection, not observed. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=forecast.

Outlook · 2026 · projection
+0.06balancedWatch

Projected macro stress 47/100

Change vs now

+0.08 sentiment

-4 stress

GrowthWatch

Projected 2.06 · stress 35/100

InflationNormal

Projected 2.77 · stress 34/100

LabourNormal

Survey vs fundamentals

Survey + divergence

Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/survey and /divergence.

Survey heldledger 51018ed

United States: consumer confidence is 95.88141 (below-trend pessimism); soft vs hard sentiment is mixed.

Consumer confidence (survey)

Observed
OECD Consumer Confidence Index
95.88

Alerts

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We'll email you when this economy's derived sentiment crosses your threshold (−1 stressed … +1 supportive). Edge-triggered — one email when it crosses, not while it stays past the line.

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Inflation
Normal
+0.50supportive

Stress 25/100 · as of 2025-12-31

LabourWatch
+0.10balanced

Stress 45/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Debt / fiscalStressed
−0.76stressed

Stress 88/100 · as of 2025-12-31

ExternalElevated
−0.28cautious

Stress 64/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Each aspect is a single macro-pressure driver — a narrow proxy, not a multi-signal sector model.

Span change

−0.45

Latest step

−0.04

Years

65

Confidence

High

AI read

Projected 3.53 · stress 31/100

Debt / fiscalStressed

Projected 125.99 · stress 81/100

ExternalElevated

Projected -3.86 · stress 73/100

Projection · not observedDerived from the prediction engine’s baseline projections for 5/5 drivers · High confidence.
AI read

OECD SDMX API

Below-trend pessimismvs 100 long-run trend
MoM ▼−0.033m ▼−0.59YoY ▼−1.13

Consumer confidence in United States is 95.88 — below the 100 long-run trend (below-trend pessimism) and falling.

Soft vs hard divergence

Derived
Mixedconf high
Soft (survey)
-0.82

CCI 95.88 · pessimistic

Hard (macro)
-0.02

balanced · pressure 51

Gap (soft − hard)
-0.80

>0 = confidence ahead

Soft and hard sentiment for United States are MIXED — one side is around its neutral reference, so there is no clear divergence.

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/USA/survey · /divergence · Full brief → · API docs