Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
United Kingdom: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, United Kingdom's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.834 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 93.54 | 2023 (3.4T) |
Latest observed-3.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.97 | -1.03 | -4.92 | -3.42 – -2.53 |
| 2028 | -2.92 | 0.45 | -6.28 | -3.74 – -2.09 |
| 2030 | -2.86 | 1.48 | -7.21 | -3.98 – -1.75 |
| 2035 | -2.73 | 3.42 | -8.87 | -4.42 – -1.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.33typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.57 | 35.08 | 26.65 | 29.43 – 31.7 |
| 2028 | 30.51 | 38.33 | 23.73 | 27.93 – 33.09 |
| 2030 | 30.46 | 40.55 | 21.7 | 26.58 – 34.33 |
| 2035 | 30.31 | 44.6 | 17.94 | 23.42 – 37.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.46typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.2T | 4.6T | 3.8T | 4.1T – 4.3T |
| 2028 | 4.6T | 5.4T | 4T | 4.3T – 5T |
| 2030 | 5.1T | 6.1T | 4.3T | 4.5T – 5.7T |
| 2035 | 6.3T | 7.6T | 5.1T | 5T – 7.6T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.5T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±80.5bntypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.04 | 12 | -10 | -0.94 – 5.02 |
| 2028 | 3.38 | 12 | -10 | -1.89 – 8.66 |
| 2030 | 4.72 | 12 | -10 | -2.25 – 11.7 |
| 2035 | 8.08 | 12 | -10 | -2.55 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.74typical miss · 1 realized · 57% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.9k | 66.3k | 54.4k | 58k – 61.8k |
| 2028 | 65.7k | 76.7k | 56.2k | 60.9k – 70.6k |
| 2030 | 71.5k | 85.8k | 59.2k | 63.4k – 79.7k |
| 2035 | 86.1k | 106.2k | 68.7k | 68.2k – 104k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead63.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed102(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 104.07 | 116.58 | 89.63 | 100.48 – 107.66 |
| 2028 | 108.01 | 129.68 | 83 | 99.49 – 116.53 |
| 2030 | 111.95 | 139.93 | 79.66 | 98.69 – 125.21 |
| 2035 | 121.8 | 161.37 | 76.14 | 96.22 – 147.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead103.02· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.07typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.89 | 37.41 | 26.37 | 30.54 – 33.25 |
| 2028 | 31.95 | 41.51 | 22.39 | 28.95 – 34.95 |
| 2030 | 32.01 | 44.35 | 19.67 | 27.56 – 36.46 |
| 2035 | 32.16 | 49.62 | 14.71 | 24.35 – 39.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.11· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.04typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.43 | 10.44 | -2.02 | 3.02 – 5.83 |
| 2028 | 5.28 | 15.7 | -5 | 2.72 – 7.85 |
| 2030 | 6.14 | 19.59 | -5 | 2.67 – 9.61 |
| 2035 | 8.28 | 27.31 | -5 | 2.74 – 13.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.13typical miss · 1 realized · 34% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.86 | 19.85 | 18 | 18.27 – 19.44 |
| 2028 | 18.82 | 20.06 | 17.75 | 17.43 – 20.22 |
| 2030 | 18.79 | 20.39 | 17.41 | 16.66 – 20.93 |
| 2035 | 18.71 | 20.97 | 16.75 | 14.83 – 22.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.91· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.2typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2026)· Bank of England IADB (Bank Rate)
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.33 | 5.88 | 0.59 | 2.64 – 4.01 |
| 2029 | 2.82 | 7.24 | -1.91 | 1.6 – 4.04 |
| 2031 | 2.57 | 8.28 | -2 | 0.96 – 4.18 |
| 2036 | 2.37 | 10.44 | -2 | 0.01 – 4.74 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.75· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.2m | 72.5m | 66.2m | 67.1m – 71.4m |
| 2028 | 69.5m | 72.7m | 66.4m | 64.3m – 74.6m |
| 2030 | 69.7m | 73m | 66.6m | 61.8m – 77.6m |
| 2035 | 70.3m | 73.6m | 67.2m | 55.7m – 84.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead70.3m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±610.8ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.55 | 15 | -10 | -1.05 – 4.16 |
| 2028 | 1.72 | 15 | -10 | -2.84 – 6.27 |
| 2030 | 1.88 | 15 | -10 | -4.04 – 7.81 |
| 2035 | 2.3 | 15 | -10 | -6.23 – 10.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.5typical miss · 1 realized · 163% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed170.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 171.9bn | 196.5bn | 147.4bn | 165.4bn – 178.4bn |
| 2028 | 175.3bn | 217.8bn | 132.8bn | 160.4bn – 190.3bn |
| 2030 | 178.7bn | 233.6bn | 123.9bn | 156bn – 201.4bn |
| 2035 | 187.3bn | 264.9bn | 109.7bn | 145.4bn – 229.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead170.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.44 | 1.93 | 0.95 | 1.34 – 1.54 |
| 2028 | 1.5 | 2.35 | 0.66 | 1.3 – 1.71 |
| 2030 | 1.54 | 2.63 | 0.44 | 1.25 – 1.83 |
| 2035 | 1.56 | 3.11 | 0.01 | 1.07 – 2.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.37· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed214.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 220.4bn | 252.7bn | 188.1bn | 211.9bn – 228.9bn |
| 2028 | 236.3bn | 292.2bn | 180.3bn | 216.4bn – 256.2bn |
| 2030 | 252.1bn | 324.4bn | 179.8bn | 220.9bn – 283.4bn |
| 2035 | 291.8bn | 394bn | 189.6bn | 229.4bn – 354.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead217.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.75 | 5.88 | 3.62 | 4.5 – 5 |
| 2028 | 4.76 | 6.72 | 2.8 | 4.23 – 5.28 |
| 2030 | 4.76 | 7.29 | 2.23 | 3.99 – 5.53 |
| 2035 | 4.78 | 8.36 | 1.2 | 3.47 – 6.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.44· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.55typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/GBR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 99.45 | 2024 (3.7T) |
| 2028 | 106.05 | 2025 (4T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 19.9621 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.787 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8T | 2025 (4.75) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 4321897249253.0474 + -327044513345.1438·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.765 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.11 | 2025 (4T) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 10.5555 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.706 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.4 | 2025 (4T) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 0.1922 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.512 over 63 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.54 | 2023 (3.4T) |
| 2027 | -0.07 | 2024 (3.7T) |
| 2028 | -0.75 | 2025 (4T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 8.0989 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/GBR?indicator= · API docs
