Europe & Central Asia · High income
Country-level macro health, latest observations, scenario forecasts and drivers — with sources and freshness on every figure.
Macro health
Every component is clickable — deep-link to its sector page and underlying indicator.
Macro pressure
DerivedRegime
Derived from real GDP growth level × momentum, with turning-point flags scanned across growth, inflation and unemployment. A backward-looking read, not a forecast.
Slowdown
Full picture — observed macro + sentiment + regime — in the country brief.
Snapshot
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
Sectors
One card per sector — health score, trend and top driver. Property and Credit are powered by live UK micro data; others reuse the macro-pressure pillars. Drill into any sector for its signals.
Transmission
How a macro signal propagates into micro consequences. Each node is a live signal; hover an arrow for the lag and narrative.
Policy interest rate
Est. lag: 1–3 months
Bank Rate changes pass through to new mortgage pricing within a quarter.
Effective new mortgage rate
Est. lag: 1–2 months
Mortgage pricing shapes approvals and net lending volumes.
Approvals & net lending
Est. lag: 3–6 months
Weaker lending and higher costs feed arrears as fixed terms expire.
Arrears pressure
Est. lag: 6–12 months
Rising arrears and forced sales weigh on house prices.
Regional house prices
Est. lag: 0–3 months
House-price momentum is the dominant input to the property health score.
UK Property health score
Mortgage pricing shapes approvals and net lending volumes.
Trajectory
GDP (current US$)
Dotted overlay: IMF World Economic Outlook official projection, shown against the Predictonomy baseline.
Real GDP growth
Dotted overlay: IMF World Economic Outlook official projection, shown against the Predictonomy baseline.
Reserves
External-liquidity buffer held against balance-of-payments and currency shocks — history plus scenario forecast.
Total reserves · incl. gold, current US$
Reserve adequacy · months of imports
Three months of import cover is a common minimum adequacy benchmark.
Signal narrative
Improving
Inflation
Deteriorating
Growth, Labour, Debt / fiscal, External
Forecast
Latest observed value (canonical source) plus baseline forecasts across horizons.
| Indicator | Latest | 1y | 3y | 5y | 10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD exchange rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| GBP/USD exchange rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| USD/JPY exchange rate |
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand. Correlation, not causation; a nowcast, not a guarantee.
For each indicator, United Kingdom's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.844 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 100.46 | 2024 |
Drivers
output
Productivity
trade
Exports
trade
Imports
output
Investment
Sources
Observations and predictions come from the enabled indicator catalog and the latest prediction run. Read the full process on the methodology page.
Transparent 0–100 composite of growth, inflation, labour, fiscal and external pressure for United Kingdom. Higher means more macro pressure. A heuristic read of current conditions — not a forecast.
Macro-pressure trajectory · 0–100, higher = more pressure
Read this as a directional signal — composite, per-aspect dimensions, trajectory & forward outlook — on United Kingdom sentiment →
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
IMF DataMapper API · 2026
IMF DataMapper API · 2026
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
Weaker lending and higher costs feed arrears as fixed terms expire.
Rising arrears and forced sales weigh on house prices.
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Gross domestic product, current US dollars | $4T | $4.5T | $5.0T | $5.5T | $6.8T |
| Total population | 69.5m | 0.07B | 0.07B | 0.07B | 0.07B |
| Real GDP growth | 1.4% | 0.30% | -0.94% | -2.19% | -5.29% |
| GDP per capita, current US dollars | $57.6k | $63.7K | $70.4K | $77.0K | $93.7K |
| Consumer price inflation | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | -1.3% |
| Unemployment rate | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% |
| Productivity growth | 1.5% | 1.55% | 1.72% | 1.88% | 2.30% |
| General government debt to GDP | 103.6% | 105.6% | 109.5% | 113.5% | 123.3% |
| Current account balance to GDP | -3.4% | -3.6% | -4.0% | -4.4% | -5.4% |
| Exports of goods and services | 30.6% | 30.6% | 30.5% | 30.5% | 30.3% |
| Imports of goods and services | 31.9% | 31.9% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.2% |
| Monetary policy rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Total reserves (including gold) | $214.4bn | 220.4B | 236.3B | 252.1B | 291.8B |
| Consumer price inflation (monthly) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Reserves in months of imports | 1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Government bond yield (10 year) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Gross fixed capital formation to GDP | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.7% |
| Total reserves (excluding gold) | $170.8bn | 171.9B | 175.3B | 178.7B | 187.3B |
| Consumer confidence index | 98.1 | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Business confidence index | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Energy use per capita | 2.1k | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Renewable energy share | 12.2% | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Net energy imports | 44.0% | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Electric power consumption per capita | 4.2k | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
Latest GDP: $4T — World Bank Indicators API · 2025 vintage. Forecast horizons are baseline values from the latest prediction run.
| 2028 | 107.18 | 2025 (4T) |
| 2029 | 112.93 | 2026 (4.3T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 19.4954 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.789 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.1T | 2024 (4.36) |
| 2028 | 2.9T | 2025 (4.75) |
| 2029 | 2.6T | 2026 (5.6) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 4502326328367.677 + -332892032454.078·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.754 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.92 | 2026 (4.3T) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 10.4042 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.719 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.52 | 2025 (4T) |
| 2028 | -4.82 | 2026 (4.3T) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 0.1228 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.509 over 64 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.13 | 2024 (3.7T) |
| 2028 | -0.53 | 2025 (4T) |
| 2029 | -1.09 | 2026 (4.3T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 8.0478 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/GBR?indicator= · Full forecast →
