Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Saudi Arabia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Saudi Arabia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.719 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 716.3bn | 2023 (23) |
Latest observed-3.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.45 | 9.53 | -16.43 | -6.15 – -0.74 |
| 2028 | -5.14 | 17.34 | -27.62 | -9.97 – -0.3 |
| 2030 | -6.83 | 22.19 | -30 | -13.3 – -0.36 |
| 2035 | -11.06 | 29.98 | -30 | -21.21 – -0.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.8· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.05typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.43 | 40.1 | 20.18 | 27.43 – 31.42 |
| 2028 | 28.79 | 47.28 | 12.77 | 24.77 – 32.82 |
| 2030 | 28.16 | 52.03 | 7.48 | 22.5 – 33.82 |
| 2035 | 26.58 | 60.33 | 0 | 17.5 – 35.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.02typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3T | 1.6T | 1.1T | 1.3T – 1.4T |
| 2028 | 1.4T | 1.8T | 989.6bn | 1.3T – 1.5T |
| 2030 | 1.5T | 2T | 952.8bn | 1.3T – 1.6T |
| 2035 | 1.6T | 2.5T | 936.1bn | 1.3T – 2T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±40.8bntypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.89 | 12 | -7.29 | 3.26 – 8.51 |
| 2028 | 8.74 | 12 | -10 | 3.94 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.6 | 12 | -10 | 5.01 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.07 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.19typical miss · 1 realized · 278% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.2k | 43.3k | 26.3k | 32.6k – 35.9k |
| 2028 | 33.8k | 49.6k | 20.2k | 30.3k – 37.3k |
| 2030 | 33.5k | 53.8k | 15.8k | 28.4k – 38.6k |
| 2035 | 32.5k | 61.3k | 7.6k | 23.9k – 41.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead37.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.47 | 41 | 24.79 | 31.78 – 35.17 |
| 2028 | 36.82 | 49.85 | 21.78 | 33.05 – 40.59 |
| 2030 | 40.17 | 56.99 | 20.76 | 34.37 – 45.97 |
| 2035 | 48.54 | 72.33 | 21.09 | 37.11 – 59.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead37.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.93typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.73 | 32.55 | 24.91 | 27.69 – 29.78 |
| 2028 | 29.86 | 36.47 | 23.24 | 27.41 – 32.3 |
| 2030 | 30.98 | 39.52 | 22.43 | 27.19 – 34.76 |
| 2035 | 33.78 | 45.86 | 21.7 | 26.53 – 41.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.88typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.34 | 3.39 | 1.23 | 2.08 – 2.61 |
| 2028 | 3.09 | 4.9 | 1.16 | 2.54 – 3.64 |
| 2030 | 3.84 | 6.17 | 1.34 | 3.02 – 4.66 |
| 2035 | 5.71 | 9.01 | 2.18 | 4.07 – 7.36 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.78· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.44typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.52 | 34.73 | 28.74 | 30.55 – 32.5 |
| 2028 | 34.95 | 40.51 | 30.13 | 32.37 – 37.54 |
| 2030 | 38.38 | 45.56 | 32.16 | 34.02 – 42.74 |
| 2035 | 46.95 | 57.11 | 38.15 | 37.21 – 56.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.35typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.6m | 38.5m | 34.9m | 35.5m – 37.8m |
| 2028 | 38.5m | 41.7m | 35.4m | 35.6m – 41.3m |
| 2030 | 40.3m | 44.5m | 36.4m | 35.7m – 44.9m |
| 2035 | 44.9m | 50.9m | 39.3m | 35.6m – 54.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead37.5m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±101.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.49 | 15 | -10 | -3.98 – 1 |
| 2028 | -2.72 | 15 | -10 | -7.13 – 1.68 |
| 2030 | -3.96 | 15 | -10 | -9.8 – 1.88 |
| 2035 | -7.04 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 1.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.78· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.95typical miss · 1 realized · 603% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed459.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 457.1bn | 497.7bn | 416.5bn | 442.9bn – 471.3bn |
| 2028 | 451.4bn | 521.8bn | 381.1bn | 418bn – 484.8bn |
| 2030 | 445.8bn | 536.6bn | 354.9bn | 395.2bn – 496.4bn |
| 2035 | 431.6bn | 560.1bn | 303.2bn | 342.1bn – 521.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead457.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.92 | 21.93 | 13.92 | 17.02 – 18.82 |
| 2028 | 20.69 | 27.63 | 13.75 | 18.64 – 22.75 |
| 2030 | 22.05 | 31.01 | 13.09 | 18.91 – 25.18 |
| 2035 | 23.13 | 35.8 | 10.46 | 17.49 – 28.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.23· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed505.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 507.6bn | 554.3bn | 460.9bn | 491.8bn – 523.3bn |
| 2028 | 514.9bn | 595.8bn | 434bn | 476.8bn – 553bn |
| 2030 | 522.2bn | 626.6bn | 417.8bn | 462.9bn – 581.5bn |
| 2035 | 540.4bn | 688.1bn | 392.8bn | 428.3bn – 652.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead507.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.07 | 2.87 | 1.26 | 1.91 – 2.22 |
| 2028 | 0.12 | 1.52 | 0 | 0 – 0.38 |
| 2030 | 0 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 – 0.36 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.54 | 0 | 0 – 0.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.43· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SAU · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 693.4bn | 2024 (25.9) |
| 2028 | 647bn | 2025 (31.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 897256076676.8411 + -7869779809.87·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.665 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.71 | 2025 (1.3T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 70.7459 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.602 over 62 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.13 | 2023 (0.54) |
| 2027 | 2.08 | 2024 (2.65) |
| 2028 | 2.92 | 2025 (4.5) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 0.8791 + 0.4533·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SAU?indicator= · API docs
