Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan · High income
Country-level macro health, latest observations, scenario forecasts and drivers — with sources and freshness on every figure.
Macro health
Every component is clickable — deep-link to its sector page and underlying indicator.
Macro pressure
DerivedRegime
Derived from real GDP growth level × momentum, with turning-point flags scanned across growth, inflation and unemployment. A backward-looking read, not a forecast.
Slowdown
Full picture — observed macro + sentiment + regime — in the country brief.
Snapshot
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
Sectors
One card per sector — health score, trend and top driver. Property and Credit are powered by live UK micro data; others reuse the macro-pressure pillars. Drill into any sector for its signals.
Transmission
How a macro signal propagates into micro consequences. Each node is a live signal; hover an arrow for the lag and narrative.
npm run hierarchy:remap). For the UK: Bank Rate → mortgage pricing → arrears and house prices.Trajectory
GDP (current US$)
Dotted overlay: IMF World Economic Outlook official projection, shown against the Predictonomy baseline.
Real GDP growth
Dotted overlay: IMF World Economic Outlook official projection, shown against the Predictonomy baseline.
Reserves
External-liquidity buffer held against balance-of-payments and currency shocks — history plus scenario forecast.
Total reserves · incl. gold, current US$
Reserve adequacy · months of imports
Three months of import cover is a common minimum adequacy benchmark.
Signal narrative
Improving
Labour, External
Deteriorating
Growth, Inflation, Debt / fiscal
Forecast
Latest observed value (canonical source) plus baseline forecasts across horizons.
| Indicator | Latest | 1y | 3y | 5y | 10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD exchange rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| GBP/USD exchange rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| USD/JPY exchange rate |
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand. Correlation, not causation; a nowcast, not a guarantee.
For each indicator, Saudi Arabia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.702 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 719bn | 2024 |
Drivers
output
Productivity
trade
Exports
trade
Imports
output
Investment
Sources
Observations and predictions come from the enabled indicator catalog and the latest prediction run. Read the full process on the methodology page.
Transparent 0–100 composite of growth, inflation, labour, fiscal and external pressure for Saudi Arabia. Higher means more macro pressure. A heuristic read of current conditions — not a forecast.
Macro-pressure trajectory · 0–100, higher = more pressure
Read this as a directional signal — composite, per-aspect dimensions, trajectory & forward outlook — on Saudi Arabia sentiment →
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
IMF DataMapper API · 2026
IMF DataMapper API · 2026
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Gross domestic product, current US dollars | $1.3T | $1.4T | $1.6T | $1.7T | $2.0T |
| Total population | 37m | 0.04B | 0.04B | 0.04B | 0.03B |
| Real GDP growth | 4.5% | 2.93% | 2.40% | 1.87% | 0.53% |
| GDP per capita, current US dollars | $34.5k | $38.4K | $40.0K | $41.6K | $45.7K |
| Consumer price inflation | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% |
| Unemployment rate | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Productivity growth | -0.8% | -1.49% | -2.72% | -3.96% | -7.04% |
| General government debt to GDP | 32.1% | 33.6% | 36.7% | 39.8% | 47.5% |
| Current account balance to GDP | -1.6% | -2.3% | -3.6% | -4.9% | -8.3% |
| Exports of goods and services | 29.7% | 29.4% | 28.8% | 28.2% | 26.6% |
| Imports of goods and services | 28.2% | 28.7% | 29.9% | 31.0% | 33.8% |
| Monetary policy rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Total reserves (including gold) | $505.2bn | 507.6B | 514.9B | 522.2B | 540.4B |
| Consumer price inflation (monthly) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Reserves in months of imports | 16 | 17.6 | 20.1 | 21.3 | 22.2 |
| Government bond yield (10 year) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Gross fixed capital formation to GDP | 30.1% | 31.5% | 35.0% | 38.4% | 47.0% |
| Total reserves (excluding gold) | $459.8bn | 457.1B | 451.4B | 445.8B | 431.6B |
| Consumer confidence index | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Business confidence index | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Energy use per capita | 7.1k | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Renewable energy share | 0.1% | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Net energy imports | -178.2% | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Electric power consumption per capita | 11.9k | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
Latest GDP: $1.3T — World Bank Indicators API · 2025 vintage. Forecast horizons are baseline values from the latest prediction run.
| 2028 | 671.4bn | 2025 (31.7) |
| 2029 | 668.1bn | 2026 (32.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 931642763031.5406 + -8209283254.3956·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.639 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -7.29 | 2026 (1.4T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 68.7592 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.602 over 63 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.12 | 2024 (2.65) |
| 2028 | 2.96 | 2025 (4.5) |
| 2029 | 2.32 | 2026 (3.1) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 0.9214 + 0.4519·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SAU?indicator= · Full forecast →