Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding high income): forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding high income)'s strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.711 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.99 | 2025 (4.14) |
Latest observed-0.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.64 | 1.19 | -2.48 | -1.03 – -0.25 |
| 2028 | -0.33 | 2.85 | -3.5 | -1.02 – 0.37 |
| 2030 | -0.01 | 4.1 | -4.11 | -0.93 – 0.91 |
| 2035 | 0.78 | 6.59 | -5.02 | -0.56 – 2.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.04typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.72 | 33.71 | 24.4 | 27.55 – 29.9 |
| 2028 | 30.59 | 39.23 | 23.1 | 27.89 – 33.29 |
| 2030 | 32.45 | 43.61 | 22.78 | 28.26 – 36.64 |
| 2035 | 37.12 | 52.89 | 23.44 | 28.92 – 45.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.02typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2T | 2.6T | 1.9T | 2.1T – 2.3T |
| 2028 | 2.2T | 2.8T | 1.6T | 2T – 2.4T |
| 2030 | 2.2T | 3T | 1.4T | 1.9T – 2.4T |
| 2035 | 2.1T | 3.3T | 1.1T | 1.7T – 2.6T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.6T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±320.2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.87 | 10.75 | -0.22 | 3.82 – 5.93 |
| 2028 | 6.54 | 12 | -2.29 | 4.53 – 8.55 |
| 2030 | 8.2 | 12 | -3.19 | 5.35 – 11.05 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -4.11 | 6.98 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.37typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6k | 1.9k | 1.4k | 1.6k – 1.7k |
| 2028 | 1.5k | 2.1k | 1.1k | 1.4k – 1.7k |
| 2030 | 1.4k | 2.2k | 835.12 | 1.2k – 1.6k |
| 2035 | 1.2k | 2.2k | 356.55 | 909.17 – 1.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±414.09typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.16 | 63.35 | 54.33 | 57.33 – 61 |
| 2028 | 63.89 | 71.14 | 55.52 | 59.16 – 68.61 |
| 2030 | 68.61 | 77.98 | 57.81 | 60.82 – 76.4 |
| 2035 | 80.42 | 93.67 | 65.14 | 63.74 – 97.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead56.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.66typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.67 | 32.96 | 24.38 | 27.55 – 29.79 |
| 2028 | 30.4 | 37.83 | 22.97 | 27.81 – 33 |
| 2030 | 32.13 | 41.73 | 22.54 | 28.09 – 36.17 |
| 2035 | 36.46 | 50.03 | 22.9 | 28.55 – 44.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.04typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.36 | 9.28 | -2.98 | 1.99 – 4.73 |
| 2028 | 2.09 | 12.35 | -5 | -0.28 – 4.47 |
| 2030 | 0.83 | 14.06 | -5 | -2.18 – 3.84 |
| 2035 | -2.33 | 16.38 | -5 | -5 – 2.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.24typical miss · 1 realized · 61% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.53 | 26.69 | 20.79 | 22.7 – 24.36 |
| 2028 | 24.83 | 30.3 | 20.09 | 22.86 – 26.8 |
| 2030 | 26.13 | 33.19 | 20.01 | 23.03 – 29.23 |
| 2035 | 29.38 | 39.37 | 20.72 | 23.25 – 35.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.23typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.3bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn – 1.4bn |
| 2030 | 1.4bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn – 1.5bn |
| 2035 | 1.5bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn | 1.2bn – 1.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±82.3mtypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.85 | 7.65 | -2.5 | 1.09 – 2.6 |
| 2028 | 3.07 | 13.11 | -4.47 | 1.66 – 4.47 |
| 2030 | 4.29 | 15 | -5.44 | 2.32 – 6.25 |
| 2035 | 7.34 | 15 | -6.42 | 3.87 – 10.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.53typical miss · 1 realized · 39% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.9 | 7.37 | 4.42 | 5.58 – 6.22 |
| 2028 | 5.63 | 8.19 | 3.07 | 4.97 – 6.29 |
| 2030 | 5.5 | 8.81 | 2.2 | 4.56 – 6.45 |
| 2035 | 5.4 | 10.07 | 0.73 | 3.82 – 6.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.19· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.41 | 6.05 | 4.77 | 5.22 – 5.59 |
| 2028 | 4.91 | 6.02 | 3.79 | 4.5 – 5.31 |
| 2030 | 4.4 | 5.84 | 2.97 | 3.83 – 4.98 |
| 2035 | 3.15 | 5.18 | 1.11 | 2.33 – 3.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SSA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 6.4312 + -0.1067·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.654 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.91 | 2023 (2.71) |
| 2027 | 40.16 | 2024 (3.62) |
| 2028 | 38 | 2025 (4.14) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 55.1341 + -4.1401·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SSA?indicator= · API docs
