Imported · Imported
Country-level macro health, latest observations, scenario forecasts and drivers — with sources and freshness on every figure.
Macro health
Every component is clickable — deep-link to its sector page and underlying indicator.
Macro pressure
DerivedRegime
Derived from real GDP growth level × momentum, with turning-point flags scanned across growth, inflation and unemployment. A backward-looking read, not a forecast.
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
Full picture — observed macro + sentiment + regime — in the country brief.
Snapshot
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
Sectors
One card per sector — health score, trend and top driver. Property and Credit are powered by live UK micro data; others reuse the macro-pressure pillars. Drill into any sector for its signals.
Transmission
How a macro signal propagates into micro consequences. Each node is a live signal; hover an arrow for the lag and narrative.
npm run hierarchy:remap). For the UK: Bank Rate → mortgage pricing → arrears and house prices.Trajectory
GDP (current US$)
Dotted overlay: IMF World Economic Outlook official projection, shown against the Predictonomy baseline.
Real GDP growth
Dotted overlay: IMF World Economic Outlook official projection, shown against the Predictonomy baseline.
Reserves
External-liquidity buffer held against balance-of-payments and currency shocks — history plus scenario forecast.
Reserve adequacy · months of imports
Three months of import cover is a common minimum adequacy benchmark.
Signal narrative
Improving
Growth, Inflation, Labour, Debt / fiscal, External
Deteriorating
No components deteriorated on the latest reading.
Forecast
Latest observed value (canonical source) plus baseline forecasts across horizons.
| Indicator | Latest | 1y | 3y | 5y | 10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD exchange rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| GBP/USD exchange rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| USD/JPY exchange rate |
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand. Correlation, not causation; a nowcast, not a guarantee.
For each indicator, Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding high income)'s strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.711 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.99 | 2025 |
Drivers
output
Productivity
trade
Exports
trade
Imports
output
Investment
Sources
Observations and predictions come from the enabled indicator catalog and the latest prediction run. Read the full process on the methodology page.
Transparent 0–100 composite of growth, inflation, labour, fiscal and external pressure for Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding high income). Higher means more macro pressure. A heuristic read of current conditions — not a forecast.
Macro-pressure trajectory · 0–100, higher = more pressure
Read this as a directional signal — composite, per-aspect dimensions, trajectory & forward outlook — on Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding high income) sentiment →
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
IMF DataMapper API · 2026
IMF DataMapper API · 2026
World Bank WDI
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Gross domestic product, current US dollars | $2.2T | $2.2T | $2.2T | $2.2T | $2.1T |
| Total population | 1.3bn | 1.31B | 1.35B | 1.38B | 1.47B |
| Real GDP growth | 4.1% | 4.87% | 6.54% | 8.20% | 12.00% |
| GDP per capita, current US dollars | $1.7k | $1.6K | $1.5K | $1.4K | $1.2K |
| Consumer price inflation | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | -2.3% |
| Unemployment rate | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% |
| Productivity growth | 1.4% | 1.85% | 3.07% | 4.29% | 7.34% |
| General government debt to GDP | 55.5% | 59.2% | 63.9% | 68.6% | 80.4% |
| Current account balance to GDP | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.3% | -0.0% | 0.8% |
| Exports of goods and services | 27.8% | 28.7% | 30.6% | 32.5% | 37.1% |
| Imports of goods and services | 27.8% | 28.7% | 30.4% | 32.1% | 36.5% |
| Monetary policy rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Total reserves (including gold) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Consumer price inflation (monthly) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Reserves in months of imports | 6 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| Government bond yield (10 year) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Gross fixed capital formation to GDP | 23.0% | 23.5% | 24.8% | 26.1% | 29.4% |
| Total reserves (excluding gold) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Consumer confidence index | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Business confidence index | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Energy use per capita | 476 | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Renewable energy share | 70.3% | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Net energy imports | 22.6% | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Electric power consumption per capita | 380 | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
Latest GDP: $2.2T — World Bank Indicators API · 2025 vintage. Forecast horizons are baseline values from the latest prediction run.
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 6.4312 + -0.1067·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.653 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.83 | 2023 (2.71) |
| 2027 | 40.1 | 2024 (3.62) |
| 2028 | 37.95 | 2025 (4.14) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 55.023 + -4.1253·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.5 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.19 | 2025 (-0.8) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 3.8021 + 0.7662·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SSA?indicator= · Full forecast →