Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
WBG: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, WBG's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.933 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.42 | 2023 (18.6bn) |
Latest observed-15.8(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -16.49 | -10.87 | -22.12 | -17.9 – -15.08 |
| 2028 | -17.88 | -8.13 | -27.62 | -20.72 – -15.03 |
| 2030 | -19.26 | -6.68 | -30 | -23.37 – -15.15 |
| 2035 | -22.72 | -4.93 | -30 | -29.98 – -15.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-14.27· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.64typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.2bn(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.7bn | 20.2bn | 13.7bn | 16bn – 17.4bn |
| 2028 | 15.8bn | 21.8bn | 10.5bn | 14.3bn – 17.3bn |
| 2030 | 14.9bn | 22.7bn | 8.1bn | 12.7bn – 17bn |
| 2035 | 12.5bn | 23.6bn | 2.9bn | 9.2bn – 15.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.3(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.33 | 12 | -10 | -0.9 – 11.56 |
| 2028 | 8.25 | 12 | -10 | -2.79 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.17 | 12 | -10 | -3.46 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -9.34 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±14.3typical miss · 1 realized · 333% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3k(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9k | 3.5k | 2.3k | 2.7k – 3k |
| 2028 | 2.5k | 3.7k | 1.6k | 2.3k – 2.8k |
| 2030 | 2.2k | 3.7k | 959.06 | 1.9k – 2.6k |
| 2035 | 1.5k | 3.5k | 0 | 976.43 – 1.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±240.61typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.9(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.94 | 67.65 | 48.9 | 56.66 – 61.23 |
| 2028 | 65.03 | 80.11 | 47.63 | 59.59 – 70.47 |
| 2030 | 71.12 | 90.58 | 48.65 | 62.43 – 79.8 |
| 2035 | 86.33 | 113.86 | 54.56 | 68.28 – 104.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead58.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.74typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.5(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.03 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 17.67 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 24.36 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 36.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.66· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.7m(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.7m | 6m | 5.5m | 5.5m – 5.9m |
| 2028 | 5.8m | 6.1m | 5.6m | 5.4m – 6.3m |
| 2030 | 6m | 6.3m | 5.7m | 5.3m – 6.7m |
| 2035 | 6.3m | 6.6m | 6m | 5m – 7.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.4(2022)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24.27 | 26.36 | 22.17 | 23.51 – 25.02 |
| 2025 | 24 | 27.62 | 20.37 | 22.22 – 25.77 |
| 2027 | 23.73 | 28.41 | 19.05 | 21.03 – 26.42 |
| 2032 | 23.06 | 29.68 | 16.43 | 18.27 – 27.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.08· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/WBG · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 44.22 | 2024 (16bn) |
| 2028 | 46.5 | 2025 (17.2bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 12.4271 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.849 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.3bn | 2025 (55.9) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -1539318860.399 + 425582137.442·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.612 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.05 | 2023 (46.5) |
| 2027 | -11.57 | 2024 (56.1) |
| 2028 | -11.46 | 2025 (55.9) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 20.7289 + -0.5758·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.555 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23.1 | 2022 (3.7) |
| 2024 | 20.99 | 2023 (5.9) |
| 2025 | -24.91 | 2024 (53.7) |
| 2026 | 16.57 | 2025 (10.5) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 26.6554 + -0.9602·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.554 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -11.46 | 2025 (17.2bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -26.3458 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.516 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.9 | 2023 (46.5) |
| 2027 | 21.83 | 2024 (56.1) |
| 2028 | 21.71 | 2025 (55.9) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -12.8416 + 0.6181·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/WBG?indicator= · API docs
