Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
WBG: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2032, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, WBG's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.925 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 49.48 | 2022 (19.2bn) |
Latest observed-18.1(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -18.44 | -13.21 | -23.68 | -19.81 – -17.08 |
| 2027 | -19.13 | -10.07 | -28.19 | -21.9 – -16.36 |
| 2029 | -19.82 | -8.12 | -30 | -23.79 – -15.85 |
| 2034 | -21.54 | -5 | -30 | -28.36 – -14.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-18.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.57typical miss · 20 realized · 51% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16bn(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15.8bn | 19.2bn | 12.8bn | 15.1bn – 16.4bn |
| 2027 | 15.1bn | 21bn | 10.1bn | 13.7bn – 16.6bn |
| 2029 | 14.5bn | 22.1bn | 7.9bn | 12.4bn – 16.6bn |
| 2034 | 12.9bn | 23.6bn | 3.7bn | 9.6bn – 16.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.9bntypical miss · 20 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-22.9(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -5.16 |
| 2027 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -1.42 |
| 2029 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.25 |
| 2034 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 6.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-10· skill-weighted across models
Track record±11.58typical miss · 20 realized · 275% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9k(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.8k | 3.4k | 2.2k | 2.6k – 2.9k |
| 2027 | 2.5k | 3.6k | 1.5k | 2.2k – 2.7k |
| 2029 | 2.2k | 3.7k | 992.93 | 1.9k – 2.6k |
| 2034 | 1.6k | 3.6k | 0 | 1.1k – 2.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±773.32typical miss · 20 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.1(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 58.64 | 68.65 | 47.1 | 56.17 – 61.12 |
| 2027 | 63.73 | 81.06 | 43.74 | 58.01 – 69.46 |
| 2029 | 68.82 | 91.19 | 43.01 | 59.88 – 77.77 |
| 2034 | 81.55 | 113.18 | 45.05 | 63.63 – 99.46 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead58.58· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.04typical miss · 20 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.5(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.03 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 17.67 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 24.36 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 36.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.66· skill-weighted across models
Track record±15.76typical miss · 20 realized · 150% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.7m(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.7m | 6m | 5.5m | 5.5m – 5.9m |
| 2028 | 5.8m | 6.1m | 5.6m | 5.4m – 6.3m |
| 2030 | 6m | 6.3m | 5.7m | 5.3m – 6.7m |
| 2035 | 6.3m | 6.6m | 6m | 5m – 7.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±378.5ktypical miss · 20 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.4(2022)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24.27 | 26.36 | 22.17 | 23.51 – 25.02 |
| 2025 | 24 | 27.62 | 20.37 | 22.22 – 25.77 |
| 2027 | 23.73 | 28.41 | 19.05 | 21.03 – 26.42 |
| 2032 | 23.06 | 29.68 | 16.43 | 18.27 – 27.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.85typical miss · 20 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/WBG · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2026 | 48.46 | 2023 (18.6bn) |
| 2027 | 43.48 | 2024 (16bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 12.973 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.873 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24.2bn | 2024 (56.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -3235651823.0097 + 489280360.6167·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.681 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -9.34 | 2022 (47.1) |
| 2026 | -8.92 | 2023 (46.5) |
| 2027 | -15.72 | 2024 (56.1) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 24.0166 + -0.7083·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.558 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -12.19 | 2024 (16bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -26.4523 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.555 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23.1 | 2022 (3.7) |
| 2024 | 20.99 | 2023 (5.9) |
| 2025 | -24.91 | 2024 (53.7) |
| 2026 | 16.57 | 2025 (10.5) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 26.6554 + -0.9602·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.516 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.9 | 2023 (46.5) |
| 2027 | 21.83 | 2024 (56.1) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -12.8416 + 0.6181·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/WBG?indicator= · API docs
