Imported · Imported
Country-level macro health, latest observations, scenario forecasts and drivers — with sources and freshness on every figure.
Macro health
Every component is clickable — deep-link to its sector page and underlying indicator.
Macro pressure
DerivedRegime
Derived from real GDP growth level × momentum, with turning-point flags scanned across growth, inflation and unemployment. A backward-looking read, not a forecast.
Contraction
Full picture — observed macro + sentiment + regime — in the country brief.
Snapshot
IMF DataMapper API · 2024
Sectors
One card per sector — health score, trend and top driver. Property and Credit are powered by live UK micro data; others reuse the macro-pressure pillars. Drill into any sector for its signals.
Transmission
How a macro signal propagates into micro consequences. Each node is a live signal; hover an arrow for the lag and narrative.
npm run hierarchy:remap). For the UK: Bank Rate → mortgage pricing → arrears and house prices.Trajectory
GDP (current US$)
Real GDP growth
Signal narrative
Improving
Inflation, Labour
Deteriorating
Growth, Debt / fiscal, External
Forecast
Latest observed value (canonical source) plus baseline forecasts across horizons.
| Indicator | Latest | 1y | 3y | 5y | 10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD exchange rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| GBP/USD exchange rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| USD/JPY exchange rate |
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand. Correlation, not causation; a nowcast, not a guarantee.
For each indicator, WBG's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.925 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 49.48 | 2022 |
Sources
Observations and predictions come from the enabled indicator catalog and the latest prediction run. Read the full process on the methodology page.
Transparent 0–100 composite of growth, inflation, labour, fiscal and external pressure for WBG. Higher means more macro pressure. A heuristic read of current conditions — not a forecast.
Macro-pressure trajectory · 0–100, higher = more pressure
Read this as a directional signal — composite, per-aspect dimensions, trajectory & forward outlook — on WBG sentiment →
IMF DataMapper API · 2024
IMF DataMapper API · 2025
IMF DataMapper API · 2022
IMF DataMapper API · 2024
IMF DataMapper API · 2024
World Bank WDI
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Gross domestic product, current US dollars | $16bn | $0.0T | $0.0T | $0.0T | $0.0T |
| Total population | 5.7m | 0.01B | 0.01B | 0.01B | 0.01B |
| Real GDP growth | -22.9% | -10.00% | -10.00% | -10.00% | -10.00% |
| GDP per capita, current US dollars | $2.9k | $2.8K | $2.5K | $2.2K | $1.6K |
| Consumer price inflation | 10.5% | -5.0% | -5.0% | -5.0% | -5.0% |
| Unemployment rate | 24.4% | 24.3% | 24.0% | 23.7% | 23.1% |
| Productivity growth | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| General government debt to GDP | 56.1% | 58.6% | 63.7% | 68.8% | 81.5% |
| Current account balance to GDP | -18.1% | -18.4% | -19.1% | -19.8% | -21.5% |
| Exports of goods and services | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Imports of goods and services | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Monetary policy rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Total reserves (including gold) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Consumer price inflation (monthly) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Reserves in months of imports | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Government bond yield (10 year) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Gross fixed capital formation to GDP | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Total reserves (excluding gold) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Consumer confidence index | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Business confidence index | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Energy use per capita | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Renewable energy share | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Net energy imports | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Electric power consumption per capita | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
Latest GDP: $16bn — IMF DataMapper API · 2024 vintage. Forecast horizons are baseline values from the latest prediction run.
| 2026 | 48.46 | 2023 (18.6bn) |
| 2027 | 43.48 | 2024 (16bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 12.973 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.873 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24.2bn | 2024 (56.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -3235651823.0097 + 489280360.6167·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.681 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -9.34 | 2022 (47.1) |
| 2026 | -8.92 | 2023 (46.5) |
| 2027 | -15.72 | 2024 (56.1) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 24.0166 + -0.7083·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.558 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -12.19 | 2024 (16bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -26.4523 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.555 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23.1 | 2022 (3.7) |
| 2024 | 20.99 | 2023 (5.9) |
| 2025 | -24.91 | 2024 (53.7) |
| 2026 | 16.57 | 2025 (10.5) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 26.6554 + -0.9602·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.516 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.9 | 2023 (46.5) |
| 2027 | 21.83 | 2024 (56.1) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -12.8416 + 0.6181·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/WBG?indicator= · Full forecast →