output · indicator
Annual percentage growth rate of real gross domestic product.
Global · 2026
Baseline · 2027
How it’s forecast
Real GDP growth uses a weighted composite model with a 6-year lookback, 62% recent-data weight, 80% confidence band, and horizons of 1, 3, 5, 10 years.
Why it matters
Higher readings are generally healthier for this metric.
Trajectory
Before consensus
Countries whose latest reading deviates most from their own recent trend.
Rankings
By country
Observed history with a baseline / optimistic / pessimistic forecast for the largest current readings.
Forecast
Per-country latest reading and baseline forecast across horizons.
Realized track record: across 5820 matured forecasts (through 2026), the typical miss is ±6.19 (330% MAPE) · reliability leaderboard →. A track record, not a guarantee.
| Country | Latest | Year | 1y | 3y | 5y | 10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | 3.00% | 2025 | 3.96% | 6.66% | 9.35% | 12.00% |
| Albania | 3.40% | 2026 | 2.95% | 1.87% | 0.80% | -1.88% |
| Algeria | 3.80% | 2026 | 3.83% | 3.90% | 3.97% | 4.14% |
| American Samoa | 1.74% | 2022 | 1.23% | 0.39% | -0.44% | -2.51% |
| Andorra | 2.10% | 2026 | 1.22% | -0.88% | -2.98% | -8.23% |
| Angola | 2.30% | 2026 | 1.59% | 0.13% | -1.33% | -4.99% |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 2.60% | 2026 | 2.33% | 1.51% | 0.68% | -1.38% |
| Argentina | 3.50% | 2026 | 4.58% | 6.73% | 8.88% | 12.00% |
| Armenia | 5.30% | 2026 | 5.01% | 4.18% | 3.35% | 1.28% |
| Aruba | 2.30% | 2026 | 0.37% | -4.17% | -8.72% | -10.00% |
| Australia | 2.00% | 2026 | 2.10% | 2.25% | 2.40% | 2.78% |
| Austria | 0.70% | 2026 | 0.80% | 0.88% | 0.96% | 1.15% |
| Azerbaijan | 2.20% | 2026 | 1.39% | -0.35% | -2.08% | -6.42% |
| Bahamas, The | 2.10% | 2026 | 0.86% | -2.13% | -5.12% | -10.00% |
| Bahrain | -0.50% | 2026 | -1.69% | -4.52% | -7.35% | -10.00% |
| Bangladesh | 4.70% | 2026 | 4.63% | 4.41% | 4.20% | 3.66% |
| Barbados | 2.50% | 2026 | 1.70% | -0.27% | -2.23% | -7.15% |
| Belarus | 1.20% | 2026 | 0.37% | -1.33% | -3.02% | -7.26% |
| Belgium | 0.70% | 2026 | 0.27% | -0.79% | -1.85% | -4.49% |
| Belize | 2.20% | 2026 | 0.98% | -1.90% | -4.79% | -10.00% |
| Benin | 7.00% | 2026 | 6.93% | 6.77% | 6.61% | 6.23% |
| Bermuda | 1.89% | 2024 | 1.00% | -0.77% | -2.54% | -6.96% |
| Bhutan | 7.50% | 2026 | 7.72% | 8.30% | 8.87% | 10.32% |
| Bolivia | -3.30% | 2026 | -4.63% | -7.85% | -10.00% | -10.00% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2.20% | 2026 | 1.62% | 0.31% | -1.00% | -4.28% |
| Botswana | 4.70% | 2026 | 6.30% | 9.62% | 12.00% | 12.00% |
| Brazil | 1.90% | 2026 | 1.32% | 0.02% | -1.27% | -4.51% |
| Brunei | 2.60% | 2026 | 2.39% | 2.15% | 1.92% | 1.34% |
| Bulgaria | 2.80% | 2026 | 2.39% | 1.45% | 0.51% | -1.83% |
| Burkina Faso | 4.90% | 2026 | 4.92% | 5.02% | 5.12% | 5.36% |
| Burundi | 3.80% | 2026 | 3.79% | 3.80% | 3.81% | 3.84% |
| Cabo Verde | 4.80% | 2026 | 3.87% | 1.70% | -0.47% | -5.91% |
| Cambodia | 4.00% | 2026 | 3.49% | 2.37% | 1.26% | -1.53% |
| Cameroon | 3.30% | 2026 | 3.22% | 3.04% | 2.87% | 2.43% |
| Canada | 1.50% | 2026 | 1.08% | 0.07% | -0.95% | -3.48% |
| Cayman Islands | 3.76% | 2024 | 3.48% | 3.00% | 2.52% | 1.32% |
| Central African Republic | 2.60% | 2026 | 3.12% | 4.26% | 5.40% | 8.25% |
| Chad | 5.20% | 2026 | 5.53% | 6.34% | 7.14% | 9.14% |
| Channel Islands | 3.72% | 2023 | 2.16% | -0.76% | -3.68% | -10.00% |
| Chile | 2.40% | 2026 | 1.89% | 0.75% | -0.40% | -3.28% |
| China | 4.40% | 2026 | 4.10% | 3.41% | 2.72% | 1.00% |
| Colombia | 2.30% | 2026 | 2.05% | 1.34% | 0.63% | -1.16% |
| Comoros | 4.10% | 2026 | 4.45% | 5.25% | 6.06% | 8.08% |
| Congo | 2.80% | 2026 | 3.13% | 3.86% | 4.60% | 6.44% |
| Costa Rica | 3.60% | 2026 | 3.25% | 2.37% | 1.50% | -0.69% |
| Croatia | 2.60% | 2026 | 1.72% | -0.38% | -2.48% | -7.74% |
| Cuba | -1.06% | 2024 | -1.74% | -2.99% | -4.25% | -7.39% |
| Curacao | 5.03% | 2024 | 5.36% | 6.62% | 7.88% | 11.04% |
| Cyprus | 3.00% | 2026 | 2.25% | 0.44% | -1.37% | -5.90% |
| Czechia | 2.20% | 2026 | 2.40% | 2.80% | 3.19% | 4.19% |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 6.20% | 2026 | 6.22% | 6.23% | 6.25% | 6.28% |
| DR Congo | 5.90% | 2026 | 5.73% | 5.26% | 4.79% | 3.63% |
| Denmark | 2.00% | 2026 | 1.45% | 0.27% | -0.91% | -3.87% |
| Djibouti | 6.00% | 2026 | 5.83% | 5.48% | 5.14% | 4.28% |
| Dominica | 3.10% | 2026 | 3.13% | 3.02% | 2.91% | 2.63% |
| Dominican Republic | 3.70% | 2026 | 2.78% | 0.73% | -1.31% | -6.41% |
| Ecuador | 2.50% | 2026 | 3.45% | 5.23% | 7.02% | 11.47% |
| Egypt | 4.20% | 2026 | 4.72% | 5.76% | 6.80% | 9.41% |
| El Salvador | 3.30% | 2026 | 3.15% | 2.70% | 2.26% | 1.13% |
| Equatorial Guinea | -2.70% | 2026 | -4.02% | -6.75% | -9.47% | -10.00% |
| Eritrea | 3.80% | 2019 | 7.53% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% |
| Estonia | 1.40% | 2026 | 1.56% | 1.91% | 2.27% | 3.15% |
| Eswatini | 4.00% | 2026 | 4.36% | 5.17% | 5.99% | 8.02% |
| Ethiopia | 9.20% | 2026 | 9.94% | 11.62% | 12.00% | 12.00% |
| Faroe Islands | 0.84% | 2024 | -0.05% | -2.03% | -4.02% | -8.98% |
| Fiji | 2.40% | 2026 | 2.04% | 1.00% | -0.05% | -2.66% |
| Finland | 1.00% | 2026 | 1.08% | 1.28% | 1.49% | 2.00% |
| France | 0.90% | 2026 | 0.50% | -0.45% | -1.41% | -3.80% |
| French Polynesia | 1.13% | 2024 | 0.87% | 0.44% | 0.00% | -1.08% |
| Gabon | 2.70% | 2026 | 2.54% | 2.22% | 1.91% | 1.13% |
| Gambia, The | 5.10% | 2026 | 4.99% | 4.71% | 4.43% | 3.73% |
| Georgia | 5.30% | 2026 | 3.75% | 0.27% | -3.22% | -10.00% |
| Germany | 0.80% | 2026 | 0.99% | 1.36% | 1.73% | 2.66% |
| Ghana | 4.80% | 2026 | 4.56% | 4.08% | 3.60% | 2.40% |
| Greece | 1.80% | 2026 | 1.34% | 0.19% | -0.96% | -3.83% |
| Greenland | 0.87% | 2023 | 0.66% | 0.18% | -0.29% | -1.47% |
| Grenada | 3.10% | 2026 | 3.19% | 3.21% | 3.24% | 3.30% |
| Guam | 5.10% | 2022 | 9.82% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% |
| Guatemala | 3.90% | 2026 | 3.78% | 3.46% | 3.13% | 2.32% |
| Guinea | 8.70% | 2026 | 9.87% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% |
| Guinea-Bissau | 4.90% | 2026 | 5.06% | 5.37% | 5.68% | 6.46% |
| Guyana | 16.20% | 2026 | 7.05% | -10.00% | -10.00% | -10.00% |
| Haiti | -1.70% | 2026 | -1.02% | 0.42% | 1.85% | 5.43% |
| Honduras | 3.30% | 2026 | 2.79% | 1.55% | 0.32% | -2.78% |
| Hong Kong | 2.40% | 2026 | 2.34% | 2.21% | 2.08% | 1.77% |
| Hungary | 1.70% | 2026 | 1.64% | 1.45% | 1.26% | 0.78% |
| Iceland | 1.90% | 2026 | 2.48% | 3.47% | 4.46% | 6.92% |
| India | 6.50% | 2026 | 6.20% | 5.48% | 4.76% | 2.95% |
| Indonesia | 5.00% | 2026 | 5.05% | 5.15% | 5.26% | 5.53% |
| Iran | -6.10% | 2026 | -9.50% | -10.00% | -10.00% | -10.00% |
| Iraq | -6.80% | 2026 | -8.85% | -10.00% | -10.00% | -10.00% |
| Ireland | 2.50% | 2026 | 2.16% | 1.03% | -0.10% | -2.92% |
| Isle of Man | -2.04% | 2023 | -4.06% | -8.18% | -10.00% | -10.00% |
| Israel | 3.50% | 2026 | 3.89% | 4.59% | 5.28% | 7.03% |
| Italy | 0.50% | 2026 | -0.06% | -1.43% | -2.80% | -6.24% |
| Jamaica | -1.20% | 2026 | -1.83% | -3.48% | -5.12% | -9.24% |
| Japan | 0.70% | 2026 | 0.85% | 1.09% | 1.33% | 1.94% |
| Jordan | 2.70% | 2026 | 2.70% | 2.67% | 2.63% | 2.55% |
| Kazakhstan | 4.60% | 2026 | 4.61% | 4.61% | 4.60% | 4.60% |
| Kenya | 4.50% | 2026 | 4.31% | 3.84% | 3.37% | 2.18% |
| Kiribati | 3.10% | 2026 | 2.40% | 0.81% | -0.78% | -4.77% |
| Kosovo | 3.59% | 2025 | 3.73% | 4.00% | 4.27% | 4.94% |
| Kuwait | -0.60% | 2026 | -0.48% | -0.44% | -0.40% | -0.31% |
| Kyrgyz Republic | 6.10% | 2026 | 4.69% | 1.58% | -1.54% | -9.33% |
| Laos | 4.00% | 2026 | 4.08% | 4.29% | 4.49% | 5.01% |
| Latvia | 2.20% | 2026 | 2.64% | 3.55% | 4.46% | 6.72% |
| Lebanon | 4.00% | 2025 | 6.31% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% |
| Lesotho | 1.10% | 2026 | -0.14% | -2.77% | -5.41% | -10.00% |
| Liberia | 5.10% | 2026 | 5.42% | 6.10% | 6.78% | 8.48% |
| Libya | 6.70% | 2026 | 7.74% | 9.61% | 11.47% | 12.00% |
| Liechtenstein | -0.40% | 2026 | -1.14% | -2.97% | -4.79% | -9.36% |
| Lithuania | 2.90% | 2026 | 2.72% | 2.34% | 1.96% | 1.01% |
| Luxembourg | 1.60% | 2026 | 1.74% | 2.05% | 2.36% | 3.14% |
| Macao | 3.00% | 2026 | 1.20% | -3.84% | -8.89% | -10.00% |
| Madagascar | 3.60% | 2026 | 3.31% | 2.67% | 2.04% | 0.45% |
| Malawi | 2.20% | 2026 | 2.26% | 2.39% | 2.52% | 2.84% |
| Malaysia | 4.70% | 2026 | 4.57% | 4.25% | 3.93% | 3.13% |
| Maldives | 3.00% | 2026 | 1.20% | -3.38% | -7.95% | -10.00% |
| Mali | 5.50% | 2026 | 5.79% | 6.48% | 7.17% | 8.90% |
| Malta | 3.70% | 2026 | 2.57% | -0.05% | -2.66% | -9.19% |
| Marshall Islands | 3.70% | 2026 | 3.94% | 4.74% | 5.53% | 7.53% |
| Mauritania | 4.40% | 2026 | 3.94% | 2.96% | 1.98% | -0.46% |
| Mauritius | 3.40% | 2026 | 2.83% | 1.54% | 0.26% | -2.96% |
| Mexico | 1.60% | 2026 | 1.38% | 0.81% | 0.24% | -1.19% |
| Micronesia, Fed. Sts. | 0.70% | 2026 | 0.23% | -0.72% | -1.68% | -4.07% |
| Moldova | 1.90% | 2026 | 2.01% | 2.15% | 2.30% | 2.66% |
| Monaco | 8.51% | 2024 | 8.13% | 7.55% | 6.97% | 5.52% |
| Mongolia | 5.30% | 2026 | 5.58% | 6.16% | 6.74% | 8.18% |
| Montenegro | 2.80% | 2026 | 2.11% | 0.38% | -1.36% | -5.70% |
| Morocco | 4.90% | 2026 | 5.13% | 5.65% | 6.17% | 7.46% |
| Mozambique | 0.50% | 2026 | -0.20% | -1.82% | -3.44% | -7.48% |
| Myanmar | 3.00% | 2026 | 4.59% | 8.25% | 11.91% | 12.00% |
| Namibia | 2.40% | 2026 | 1.85% | 0.61% | -0.63% | -3.72% |
| Naoero | 2.10% | 2026 | 2.09% | 2.07% | 2.04% | 1.98% |
| Nepal | 3.00% | 2026 | 2.72% | 2.06% | 1.40% | -0.25% |
| Netherlands | 1.20% | 2026 | 0.95% | 0.30% | -0.34% | -1.96% |
| New Caledonia | -13.50% | 2024 | -10.00% | -10.00% | -10.00% | -10.00% |
| New Zealand | 2.10% | 2026 | 2.76% | 4.12% | 5.48% | 8.87% |
| Nicaragua | 3.80% | 2026 | 3.62% | 3.10% | 2.59% | 1.30% |
| Niger | 6.70% | 2026 | 6.37% | 5.75% | 5.14% | 3.60% |
| Nigeria | 4.10% | 2026 | 4.23% | 4.57% | 4.91% | 5.76% |
| North Macedonia | 3.10% | 2026 | 3.09% | 3.06% | 3.03% | 2.96% |
| Northern Mariana Islands | 16.64% | 2022 | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% |
| Norway | 1.50% | 2026 | 1.33% | 0.92% | 0.51% | -0.52% |
| Oman | 3.50% | 2026 | 3.94% | 4.83% | 5.73% | 7.98% |
| Pakistan | 3.60% | 2026 | 3.60% | 3.61% | 3.62% | 3.65% |
| Palau | 3.30% | 2026 | 1.68% | -1.40% | -4.47% | -10.00% |
| Panama | 3.80% | 2026 | 3.39% | 2.13% | 0.88% | -2.26% |
| Papua New Guinea | 3.80% | 2026 | 4.00% | 4.41% | 4.82% | 5.85% |
| Paraguay | 4.20% | 2026 | 4.27% | 4.42% | 4.58% | 4.96% |
| Peru | 2.80% | 2026 | 2.15% | 0.68% | -0.80% | -4.48% |
| Philippines | 4.10% | 2026 | 3.49% | 2.11% | 0.73% | -2.72% |
| Poland | 3.30% | 2026 | 3.19% | 2.91% | 2.64% | 1.95% |
| Portugal | 1.90% | 2026 | 1.52% | 0.58% | -0.37% | -2.73% |
| Puerto Rico (US) | -0.10% | 2026 | -1.13% | -3.33% | -5.53% | -10.00% |
| Qatar | -8.60% | 2026 | -10.00% | -10.00% | -10.00% | -10.00% |
| Romania | 0.70% | 2026 | 0.34% | -0.59% | -1.51% | -3.82% |
| Russia | 1.10% | 2026 | -0.17% | -2.88% | -5.59% | -10.00% |
| Rwanda | 7.20% | 2026 | 7.17% | 6.96% | 6.75% | 6.24% |
| Samoa | 3.20% | 2026 | 3.17% | 3.00% | 2.84% | 2.42% |
| San Marino | 1.30% | 2026 | 0.68% | -0.91% | -2.49% | -6.46% |
| Sao Tome and Principe | 3.40% | 2026 | 4.00% | 5.44% | 6.87% | 10.46% |
| Saudi Arabia | 3.10% | 2026 | 2.93% | 2.40% | 1.87% | 0.53% |
| Senegal | 2.20% | 2026 | 0.92% | -1.96% | -4.85% | -10.00% |
| Serbia | 2.80% | 2026 | 2.20% | 0.89% | -0.42% | -3.70% |
| Seychelles | 1.50% | 2026 | 0.99% | -0.36% | -1.71% | -5.08% |
| Sierra Leone | 4.50% | 2026 | 4.48% | 4.38% | 4.28% | 4.03% |
| Singapore | 3.50% | 2026 | 2.72% | 1.01% | -0.70% | -4.99% |
| Sint Maarten (Dutch part) | 3.40% | 2025 | 3.97% | 5.22% | 6.46% | 9.58% |
| Slovakia | 0.60% | 2026 | -0.01% | -1.37% | -2.74% | -6.15% |
| Slovenia | 2.00% | 2026 | 1.73% | 1.09% | 0.44% | -1.19% |
| Solomon Islands | 2.80% | 2026 | 3.04% | 3.65% | 4.26% | 5.80% |
| Somalia, Fed. Rep. | 2.60% | 2026 | 2.14% | 1.12% | 0.11% | -2.42% |
| South Africa | 1.00% | 2026 | 0.94% | 0.74% | 0.55% | 0.05% |
| South Korea | 1.90% | 2026 | 1.69% | 1.23% | 0.77% | -0.39% |
| South Sudan | 4.10% | 2026 | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% |
| Spain | 2.10% | 2026 | 1.43% | -0.11% | -1.66% | -5.53% |
| Sri Lanka | 4.95% | 2025 | 7.44% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | 2.00% | 2026 | 2.39% | 3.05% | 3.71% | 5.35% |
| St. Lucia | 2.00% | 2026 | 0.28% | -3.71% | -7.70% | -10.00% |
| St. Martin (French part) | 4.90% | 2021 | 4.02% | 3.03% | 2.05% | -0.40% |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 3.00% | 2026 | 2.74% | 2.17% | 1.61% | 0.18% |
| Sudan | 0.70% | 2026 | 5.24% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% |
| Suriname | 3.90% | 2026 | 4.76% | 6.75% | 8.73% | 12.00% |
| Sweden | 2.00% | 2026 | 2.14% | 2.44% | 2.75% | 3.51% |
| Switzerland | 1.30% | 2026 | 1.00% | 0.29% | -0.43% | -2.23% |
| Syria | -0.20% | 2022 | -0.47% | -1.11% | -1.75% | -3.35% |
| Taiwan | 5.20% | 2026 | 5.31% | 5.57% | 5.83% | 6.47% |
| Tajikistan | 6.00% | 2026 | 5.20% | 3.38% | 1.55% | -3.03% |
| Tanzania | 5.90% | 2026 | 6.11% | 6.61% | 7.10% | 8.34% |
| Thailand | 1.50% | 2026 | 1.09% | 0.19% | -0.71% | -2.97% |
| Timor-Leste | 4.10% | 2026 | 8.59% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% |
| Togo | 5.00% | 2026 | 4.58% | 3.62% | 2.67% | 0.29% |
| Tonga | 2.30% | 2026 | 2.74% | 3.75% | 4.76% | 7.28% |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 0.80% | 2026 | 0.30% | -0.68% | -1.66% | -4.11% |
| Tunisia | 2.10% | 2026 | 2.13% | 2.16% | 2.18% | 2.26% |
| Turkmenistan | 2.60% | 2026 | 1.44% | -1.22% | -3.89% | -10.00% |
| Turks and Caicos Islands | 5.64% | 2024 | 4.44% | 2.03% | -0.38% | -6.40% |
| Tuvalu | 2.50% | 2026 | 2.63% | 3.16% | 3.70% | 5.04% |
| Türkiye | 3.40% | 2026 | 3.00% | 1.98% | 0.95% | -1.61% |
| Uganda | 7.50% | 2026 | 8.12% | 9.57% | 11.03% | 12.00% |
| Ukraine | 2.00% | 2026 | 2.27% | 3.28% | 4.29% | 6.82% |
| United Arab Emirates | 3.10% | 2026 | 2.79% | 1.96% | 1.13% | -0.94% |
| United Kingdom | 0.80% | 2026 | 0.30% | -0.94% | -2.19% | -5.29% |
| United States | 2.30% | 2026 | 1.97% | 1.22% | 0.47% | -1.41% |
| Uruguay | 1.80% | 2026 | 1.11% | -0.40% | -1.91% | -5.70% |
| Uzbekistan | 6.50% | 2026 | 6.43% | 6.25% | 6.07% | 5.62% |
| Vanuatu | 3.50% | 2026 | 3.56% | 3.69% | 3.82% | 4.15% |
| Venezuela | 4.00% | 2026 | 3.51% | 2.54% | 1.57% | -0.85% |
| Vietnam | 7.10% | 2026 | 7.33% | 7.87% | 8.41% | 9.77% |
| Virgin Islands (U.S.) | -1.31% | 2022 | -1.12% | -0.97% | -0.83% | -0.47% |
| West Bank and Gaza | 4.34% | 2025 | 5.38% | 8.32% | 11.26% | 12.00% |
| Yemen, Rep. | 0.50% | 2026 | 0.83% | 1.64% | 2.45% | 4.48% |
| Zambia | 4.30% | 2026 | 4.31% | 4.27% | 4.23% | 4.12% |
| Zimbabwe | 5.00% | 2026 | 5.91% | 7.64% | 9.38% | 12.00% |
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Real GDP growth uses a weighted composite model with a 6-year lookback, 62% recent-data weight, 80% confidence band, and horizons of 1, 3, 5, 10 years.
