Consensus Panel
Aggregated forecaster
Pending
2 forecasts · 0 resolved
Forecaster participation
Probability forecasts with transparent accuracy scoring.
Forecasters submit probabilities against configured questions. Resolved outcomes are scored using Brier-style accuracy metrics.
Macro Strategy Desk
Institutional research workflow
Pending
2 forecasts · 0 resolved
| Question | Category | Probability | Expected value | Resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bank Rate at end-2026 Horizon 2026-12-31 · Source: Bank of England | rates | 62% | 3.75 percent | Resolve against the published Bank of England Bank Rate effective on 31 December 2026. |
CPI above 2.5% in Q4 2026 Horizon 2026-12-31 · Source: UK Office for National Statistics | inflation | 56% | 2.7 probability | Resolve using ONS CPI annual inflation for the latest Q4 2026 month available. |
UK house prices positive year-on-year by end-2026 Horizon 2026-12-31 · Source: UK House Price Index | property | 52% | 1.8 probability | Resolve against an admin-selected official or lender house-price series configured for CitySignals. |
Elevated gilt stress episode before end-2026 Horizon 2026-12-31 · Source: UK Debt Management Office | fiscal | 41% | 0.41 probability | Resolve using configured gilt-yield volatility, spread, and auction-stress thresholds approved by admin. |
AI-cycle volatility materially affects UK macro assets Horizon 2026-12-31 · Source: CitySignals macro-asset configuration | ai cycle | 48% | 0.48 probability | Resolve using configured equity volatility, credit spread, and macro-sensitive asset movement thresholds. |
CitySignals guardrails
Research and scenario analysis only. Not financial, investment, mortgage, tax or legal advice.
- - No personalised financial advice, mortgage advice, investment advice, trading signals, or transaction guidance.
- - No wagering, staking, tokenised prediction market, or gambling functionality.
- - Forecasts are probability-framed research estimates, not facts or guarantees.
- - Scenario Studio outputs must remain private research simulations unless explicitly published by an authorised admin.
- - Property and mortgage scenarios must not recommend a mortgage product, lender, transaction, or asset allocation.