United Kingdom · sector health
Composite of arrears, demand, rates, prices and affordability. Higher = more property-market stress.
Composite score
DerivedComposite of arrears, demand, rates, prices and affordability. Higher = more property-market stress.
Trajectory
A transparent 0–100 blend of arrears, approvals, lending, prices, transactions and stamp duty — observed history plus a baseline / optimistic / pessimistic forecast. Higher = more pressure.
Transmission
This sector's position in the macro→micro chain. Each node links onward; hover an arrow for the lag and narrative.
Policy interest rate
Est. lag: 1–3 months
Bank Rate changes pass through to new mortgage pricing within a quarter.
Effective new mortgage rate
Est. lag: 1–2 months
Mortgage pricing shapes approvals and net lending volumes.
Approvals & net lending
Est. lag: 3–6 months
Weaker lending and higher costs feed arrears as fixed terms expire.
Arrears pressure
Est. lag: 6–12 months
Rising arrears and forced sales weigh on house prices.
Regional house prices
Est. lag: 0–3 months
House-price momentum is the dominant input to the property health score.
UK Property health score
Signals
HMRC · monthly
HMRC · monthly
ONS / DLUHC housebuilding · quarterly
ONS / DLUHC housebuilding · quarterly
NHBC · monthly
Drill down
Drill down
Trackers
Probability trackers that this sector informs.
Scenario tools
Stress-test this sector's assumptions in the Studios.
