Debt & money
Credit conditions, money growth, funding stress, policy-rate transmission, and liquidity pressure.
CitySignals
The UK Financial Expectations & Macro Cycle Intelligence Platform
A credible probability layer for UK rates, inflation, mortgages, fiscal policy and macro-cycle pressure, built for public tracking and private scenario analysis.
7
Featured trackers
4
Scenario types
0-100
Public index scale
No staking
No wagering
No recommendations
Public scoring archive
Official resolution rules
Scored UK expectations around rates, inflation, mortgages, fiscal policy and macro risk.
Forecast questions are framed with cutoffs, source labels, resolution rules, aggregate probabilities, and an archive that can be scored after outcomes are known.
View tracker layer
Private layerScenario reports for property, mortgages and macro asset themes.
Scenario Studio turns configurable assumptions into private research outputs for property purchases, remortgage sensitivity, and broad macro asset contexts.
Open Scenario Studio
Featured trackers
The UK macro questions people actually need to track.
Each tracker is configured around explicit questions, cutoff rules, official resolution sources, and public scoring rather than vague commentary.
01
rates
Bank Rate
Policy-rate paths, cut timing, and terminal-rate expectations.
Resolution source
Bank of England
Open tracker
02
inflation
Inflation Surprise
CPI surprise, services persistence, and official release thresholds.
Resolution source
UK Office for National Statistics
Open tracker
03
mortgage
Mortgage Direction
Refinancing pressure, affordability stress, and housing direction.
Resolution source
UK House Price Index and configured mortgage-rate datasets
Open tracker
04
fiscal
Budget & Tax Risk
Fiscal events, household tax pressure, and Budget risk.
Resolution source
HM Treasury and Office for Budget Responsibility
Open tracker
05
fiscal
Gilt & Fiscal Stress
Gilt-yield volatility, funding pressure, and fiscal credibility.
Resolution source
UK Debt Management Office
Open tracker
06
energy
Energy & Geopolitical Shock
Energy pass-through, supply disruption, and geopolitical shocks.
Resolution source
Configured official energy and public risk datasets
Open tracker
07
ai cycle
AI Cycle Heat Map
AI-cycle heat, productivity offsets, and macro-asset volatility.
Resolution source
Configured macro-asset and public market datasets
Open tracker
Macro Cycle
A structured dashboard for UK cycle pressure.
CitySignals separates the drivers that move the UK cycle: debt and money, inflation and wages, fiscal pressure, mortgage affordability, energy/geopolitics, and AI-cycle volatility.
Current phase
restrictive late cycle
Confidence 68%. Updated 2026-06-08.
Inflation & wages
Headline CPI, services inflation, real-income squeeze, wage pressure, and persistence risk.
Fiscal pressure
Budget risk, borrowing needs, tax drag, gilt supply, and debt-service sensitivity.
Mortgage affordability
Refinancing cliffs, monthly-payment pressure, housing liquidity, and deposit sensitivity.
Energy/geopolitics
Wholesale energy shocks, supply disruption, risk premia, and pass-through into inflation.
AI-cycle volatility
Valuation heat, productivity offsets, credit sensitivity, and macro-asset spillovers.
Rates path
+12.4
Mortgage refinancing pressure
+10.2
Inflation stickiness
+8.8
Gilt stress
+5.6
Private Scenario Studio
Private scenario reports for property, mortgages and macro asset themes.
Studio outputs are built around assumptions, ranges, sensitivity notes, and risk flags. They are designed for research workflows where the answer must stay separate from personal advice.
Try Scenario StudioExample workflow
House purchase
Stress deposit, purchase price, income shock, and house-price assumptions before turning them into affordability and downside flags.
Run scenario
Example workflow
Remortgage sensitivity
Compare current and stressed rates against balance, term, refinancing-window, and income-buffer assumptions.
Run scenario
Example workflow
Gold/cash/gilts/equities
Frame broad macro sensitivity under inflation, real-rate, gilt-stress, and equity-volatility scenarios without allocation guidance.
Run scenario
B2B distribution
Built for publishers, platforms, communities and data products.
CitySignals can be embedded as a visible public layer or connected as structured data after enough scored history has accumulated.
Media widgets
Embeddable tracker cards, index panels, probability charts, and macro-cycle blocks with attribution and non-advice guardrails.
Mortgage platform embeds
Research context for rate sensitivity, refinancing pressure, housing direction, and affordability scenarios without product recommendations.
Wealth/community dashboards
Macro-cycle and expectations context for audiences that need research framing rather than security-level advice.
Data/API after scored history
Structured tracker history, aggregate probabilities, score records, and resolution metadata once archive depth is sufficient.
Predictonomy and CitySignals provide research, education and scenario analysis only. They do not provide financial, investment, tax, legal or mortgage advice.