Imported · Imported
Country-level macro health, latest observations, scenario forecasts and drivers — with sources and freshness on every figure.
Macro health
Every component is clickable — deep-link to its sector page and underlying indicator.
Macro pressure
DerivedRegime
Derived from real GDP growth level × momentum, with turning-point flags scanned across growth, inflation and unemployment. A backward-looking read, not a forecast.
Slowdown
Full picture — observed macro + sentiment + regime — in the country brief.
Snapshot
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
Sectors
One card per sector — health score, trend and top driver. Property and Credit are powered by live UK micro data; others reuse the macro-pressure pillars. Drill into any sector for its signals.
Transmission
How a macro signal propagates into micro consequences. Each node is a live signal; hover an arrow for the lag and narrative.
npm run hierarchy:remap). For the UK: Bank Rate → mortgage pricing → arrears and house prices.Trajectory
GDP (current US$)
Real GDP growth
Reserves
External-liquidity buffer held against balance-of-payments and currency shocks — history plus scenario forecast.
Reserve adequacy · months of imports
Three months of import cover is a common minimum adequacy benchmark.
Signal narrative
Improving
Inflation
Deteriorating
Growth, Labour
Forecast
Latest observed value (canonical source) plus baseline forecasts across horizons.
| Indicator | Latest | 1y | 3y | 5y | 10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD exchange rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| GBP/USD exchange rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| USD/JPY exchange rate |
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand. Correlation, not causation; a nowcast, not a guarantee.
For each indicator, Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) situations's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.555 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 972.8bn | 2024 |
Drivers
output
Productivity
trade
Exports
trade
Imports
Sources
Observations and predictions come from the enabled indicator catalog and the latest prediction run. Read the full process on the methodology page.
Transparent 0–100 composite of growth, inflation, labour, fiscal and external pressure for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) situations. Higher means more macro pressure. A heuristic read of current conditions — not a forecast.
Macro-pressure trajectory · 0–100, higher = more pressure
Read this as a directional signal — composite, per-aspect dimensions, trajectory & forward outlook — on Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) situations sentiment →
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
IMF DataMapper API
IMF DataMapper API
World Bank WDI
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Gross domestic product, current US dollars | $1.9T | $1.8T | $1.7T | $1.6T | $1.3T |
| Total population | 1.1bn | 1.10B | 1.13B | 1.15B | 1.22B |
| Real GDP growth | 1.7% | 1.65% | 1.57% | 1.48% | 1.26% |
| GDP per capita, current US dollars | $1.7k | $1.6K | $1.5K | $1.3K | $0.8K |
| Consumer price inflation | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | -3.1% |
| Unemployment rate | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Productivity growth | -0.2% | 1.03% | 3.63% | 6.23% | 12.72% |
| General government debt to GDP | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Current account balance to GDP | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Exports of goods and services | 28.9% | 29.6% | 31.2% | 32.7% | 36.6% |
| Imports of goods and services | 38.1% | 39.7% | 43.0% | 46.3% | 54.6% |
| Monetary policy rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Total reserves (including gold) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Consumer price inflation (monthly) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Reserves in months of imports | 17 | 18.0 | 19.5 | 20.3 | 20.8 |
| Government bond yield (10 year) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Gross fixed capital formation to GDP | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Total reserves (excluding gold) | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Consumer confidence index | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Business confidence index | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Energy use per capita | 765 | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Renewable energy share | 42.9% | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Net energy imports | -52.6% | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Electric power consumption per capita | 741 | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
Latest GDP: $1.9T — World Bank Indicators API · 2025 vintage. Forecast horizons are baseline values from the latest prediction run.
| 2027 | 993bn | 2025 (5.34) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -2750738126843.732 + 700960245891.9624·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.521 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.93 | 2025 (5.34) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 41.8985 + -5.9866·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.503 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.87 | 2025 (4.39) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 6.0581 + -0.0439·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/FCV?indicator= · Full forecast →