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Bank Rate Probability Tracker

Tracks configured questions on the Bank of England Bank Rate path, policy cut timing, terminal-rate ranges, and rate-sensitive UK financial conditions.

CitySignals guardrails

Research and scenario analysis only. Not financial, investment, mortgage, tax or legal advice.

Open questions

Current forecast questions and aggregate snapshots.

Aggregate probabilities are research signals. Low-sample states are flagged when participant counts are limited.

Closes 31 Dec 2026 · resolves from Bank of England

Bank Rate at end-2026

Resolve against the published Bank of England Bank Rate effective on 31 December 2026.

Aggregate probability

3.357 to 4.357

Participants

0

Baseline

4 percentage points above configured baseline.

Low sample: 2 forecasts submitted. Treat aggregate probabilities as high-uncertainty research signals.

Submit a research forecast

This form validates locally and demonstrates the submission workflow. Probability entries must total 100% where applicable.

Resolved archive

Recent resolved questions and scoring summaries.

Resolved records show outcome, aggregate before close, Brier score summary, and baseline comparison once stored locally.

No resolved local records are available yet. This archive will populate after configured questions close and are resolved against their official source rules.

Methodology

Review question design, probability scoring, and resolution rules.

Open methodology