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mortgage

Mortgage Direction Index

Combines configured assumptions for rate paths, refinancing exposure, affordability pressure, house-price direction, and housing-market liquidity.

CitySignals guardrails

Research and scenario analysis only. Not financial, investment, mortgage, tax or legal advice.

Open questions

Current forecast questions and aggregate snapshots.

Aggregate probabilities are research signals. Low-sample states are flagged when participant counts are limited.

Closes 31 Dec 2026 · resolves from UK House Price Index

UK house prices positive year-on-year by end-2026

Resolve against an admin-selected official or lender house-price series configured for CitySignals.

Aggregate probability

50%

Participants

0

Baseline

5 percentage points above configured baseline.

Low sample: 2 forecasts submitted. Treat aggregate probabilities as high-uncertainty research signals.

Submit a research forecast

This form validates locally and demonstrates the submission workflow. Probability entries must total 100% where applicable.

Current total: 100%

Resolved archive

Recent resolved questions and scoring summaries.

Resolved records show outcome, aggregate before close, Brier score summary, and baseline comparison once stored locally.

No resolved local records are available yet. This archive will populate after configured questions close and are resolved against their official source rules.

Methodology

Review question design, probability scoring, and resolution rules.

Open methodology