United Kingdom · sector
All credit & rates signals for United Kingdom, with latest observation, trend and prediction.
Transmission
This sector's position in the macro→micro chain. Each node links onward; hover an arrow for the lag and narrative.
Policy interest rate
Est. lag: 1–3 months
Bank Rate changes pass through to new mortgage pricing within a quarter.
Effective new mortgage rate
Est. lag: 1–2 months
Mortgage pricing shapes approvals and net lending volumes.
Approvals & net lending
Est. lag: 3–6 months
Weaker lending and higher costs feed arrears as fixed terms expire.
Arrears pressure
Est. lag: 6–12 months
Rising arrears and forced sales weigh on house prices.
Regional house prices
Est. lag: 0–3 months
House-price momentum is the dominant input to the property health score.
UK Property health score
Signals
| Signal | Latest | Trend | Prediction | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Rate | 3.8% | — | — | daily |
| Effective interest rate on new mortgages | 4.1% | — | — | monthly |
| Effective interest rate on outstanding mortgages | 3.9% | — | — | monthly |
| Gross secured lending | £27.5bn | — | — | monthly |
| Mortgage approvals for house purchase | 65.9k | — | — | monthly |
| Mortgage approvals for remortgaging | 51.3k | — | — | monthly |
| Mortgage arrears share of balances | 1.1% | — | — | quarterly |
| Mortgage possessions | 9.2k | — | — | quarterly |
| Mortgage repayments | £22.7bn | — | — | monthly |
| Mortgages in arrears | 165.2k | — | — | quarterly |
| Net mortgage lending | £4.4bn | — | — | monthly |
| New mortgage advances | £69.6bn | — | — | quarterly |
| New mortgage commitments | £78bn | — | — | quarterly |
| Non-regulated mortgage arrears balance | £4.4bn | — | — | quarterly |
| Regulated mortgage arrears balance | £15.7bn | — | — | quarterly |
| Total mortgage arrears balance | £20.1bn | — | — | quarterly |
Trackers
Probability trackers that this sector informs.
Scenario tools
Stress-test this sector's assumptions in the Studios.
