United Kingdom · Credit & rates
Latest observation, trend and context for this signal — monthly cadence.
Effective interest rate on new mortgages
Status
liveTrajectory
Observed history with a baseline / optimistic / pessimistic forecast and confidence band.
Transmission
This signal's position in the macro→micro chain. Each node links onward; hover an arrow for the lag and narrative.
Policy interest rate
Est. lag: 1–3 months
Bank Rate changes pass through to new mortgage pricing within a quarter.
Effective new mortgage rate
Est. lag: 1–2 months
Mortgage pricing shapes approvals and net lending volumes.
Approvals & net lending
Est. lag: 3–6 months
Weaker lending and higher costs feed arrears as fixed terms expire.
Arrears pressure
Est. lag: 6–12 months
Rising arrears and forced sales weigh on house prices.
Regional house prices
Est. lag: 0–3 months
House-price momentum is the dominant input to the property health score.
UK Property health score
No dead ends
Same sector
Transmission neighbours
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