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inflation

UK Inflation Surprise Tracker

Tracks probability ranges for headline CPI, services inflation, inflation persistence, and inflation surprise relative to configured thresholds.

CitySignals guardrails

Research and scenario analysis only. Not financial, investment, mortgage, tax or legal advice.

Open questions

Current forecast questions and aggregate snapshots.

Aggregate probabilities are research signals. Low-sample states are flagged when participant counts are limited.

Closes 31 Dec 2026 · resolves from UK Office for National Statistics

CPI above 2.5% in Q4 2026

Resolve using ONS CPI annual inflation for the latest Q4 2026 month available.

Aggregate probability

53%

Participants

0

Baseline

6 percentage points above configured baseline.

Low sample: 2 forecasts submitted. Treat aggregate probabilities as high-uncertainty research signals.

Submit a research forecast

This form validates locally and demonstrates the submission workflow. Probability entries must total 100% where applicable.

Current total: 100%

Resolved archive

Recent resolved questions and scoring summaries.

Resolved records show outcome, aggregate before close, Brier score summary, and baseline comparison once stored locally.

No resolved local records are available yet. This archive will populate after configured questions close and are resolved against their official source rules.

Methodology

Review question design, probability scoring, and resolution rules.

Open methodology