United Kingdom · sector
All trade & external signals for United Kingdom, with latest observation, trend and prediction.
Transmission
This sector's position in the macro→micro chain. Each node links onward; hover an arrow for the lag and narrative.
Policy interest rate
Est. lag: 1–3 months
Bank Rate changes pass through to new mortgage pricing within a quarter.
Effective new mortgage rate
Est. lag: 1–2 months
Mortgage pricing shapes approvals and net lending volumes.
Approvals & net lending
Est. lag: 3–6 months
Weaker lending and higher costs feed arrears as fixed terms expire.
Arrears pressure
Est. lag: 6–12 months
Rising arrears and forced sales weigh on house prices.
Regional house prices
Est. lag: 0–3 months
House-price momentum is the dominant input to the property health score.
UK Property health score
Signals
| Signal | Latest | Trend | Prediction | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account balance to GDP | -3.4% | — | signal · 2027-2036 | annual |
| Exports of goods and services | 31.0% | — | signal · 2025-2034 | annual |
| Imports of goods and services | 31.9% | — | signal · 2025-2034 | annual |
