markets · indicator
Central bank policy or reference interest rate.
How it’s forecast
Policy rate uses a mean reversion model with a 10-year lookback, 70% recent-data weight, 80% confidence band, and horizons of 1, 3, 5, 10 years.
Why it matters
Interpretation depends on context and the wider macro profile.
Trajectory
No global history or forecast exists for this indicator yet.
Before consensus
Countries whose latest reading deviates most from their own recent trend.
Rankings
By country
Observed history with a baseline / optimistic / pessimistic forecast for the largest current readings.
Forecast
Per-country latest reading and baseline forecast across horizons.
| Country | Latest | Year | 1y | 3y | 5y | 10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 3.75% | 2026 | 3.33% | 2.82% | 2.57% | 2.37% |
| United States | 3.63% | 2026 | 3.34% | 2.99% | 2.82% | 2.68% |
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Sector composites & trackers using this
Sources
Policy rate uses a mean reversion model with a 10-year lookback, 70% recent-data weight, 80% confidence band, and horizons of 1, 3, 5, 10 years.
