Europe & Central Asia · High income
Country-level macro health, latest observations, scenario forecasts and drivers — with sources and freshness on every figure.
Macro health
Every component is clickable — deep-link to its sector page and underlying indicator.
Macro pressure
DerivedSnapshot
World Bank Indicators API · 2024
Sectors
One card per sector — health score, trend and top driver. Property and Credit are powered by live UK micro data; others reuse the macro-pressure pillars. Drill into any sector for its signals.
Transmission
How a macro signal propagates into micro consequences. Each node is a live signal; hover an arrow for the lag and narrative.
Policy interest rate
Est. lag: 1–3 months
Bank Rate changes pass through to new mortgage pricing within a quarter.
Effective new mortgage rate
Est. lag: 1–2 months
Mortgage pricing shapes approvals and net lending volumes.
Approvals & net lending
Est. lag: 3–6 months
Weaker lending and higher costs feed arrears as fixed terms expire.
Arrears pressure
Est. lag: 6–12 months
Rising arrears and forced sales weigh on house prices.
Regional house prices
Est. lag: 0–3 months
House-price momentum is the dominant input to the property health score.
UK Property health score
Mortgage pricing shapes approvals and net lending volumes.
Trajectory
GDP (current US$)
Real GDP growth
Signal narrative
Improving
Inflation
Deteriorating
Growth, Labour, Debt / fiscal, External
Forecast
Latest observed value (canonical source) plus baseline forecasts across horizons.
| Indicator | Latest | 1y | 3y | 5y | 10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD exchange rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| GBP/USD exchange rate | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| USD/JPY exchange rate |
Drivers
output
Productivity
trade
Exports
trade
Imports
output
Investment
Sources
Observations and predictions come from the enabled indicator catalog and the latest prediction run. Read the full process on the methodology page.
Transparent 0–100 composite of growth, inflation, labour, fiscal and external pressure for United Kingdom. Higher means more macro pressure. A heuristic read of current conditions — not a forecast.
Macro-pressure trajectory · 0–100, higher = more pressure
World Bank Indicators API · 2024
World Bank Indicators API · 2024
World Bank Indicators API · 2025
IMF DataMapper API · 2026
IMF DataMapper API · 2026
Weaker lending and higher costs feed arrears as fixed terms expire.
Rising arrears and forced sales weigh on house prices.
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Pending |
| Gross domestic product, current US dollars | $3.7T | $4.5T | $5.0T | $5.5T | $6.8T |
| Total population | 69.2m | 0.07B | 0.07B | 0.07B | 0.07B |
| Real GDP growth | 1.1% | 0.28% | -1.00% | -2.27% | -5.46% |
| GDP per capita, current US dollars | $53.2k | $63.7K | $70.4K | $77.0K | $93.7K |
| Consumer price inflation | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| Unemployment rate | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% |
| Productivity growth | 0.5% | -0.96% | -3.98% | -6.99% | -10.00% |
| General government debt to GDP | 103.6% | 105.6% | 109.5% | 113.5% | 123.3% |
| Current account balance to GDP | -3.4% | -3.6% | -4.0% | -4.4% | -5.4% |
| Exports of goods and services | 31.0% | 31.1% | 31.2% | 31.4% | 31.7% |
| Imports of goods and services | 31.9% | 31.9% | 32.0% | 32.1% | 32.3% |
| Gross fixed capital formation to GDP | 18.7% | 18.7% | 18.7% | 18.7% | 18.8% |
| Consumer confidence index | 98.1 | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
| Business confidence index | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending | Pending |
Latest GDP: $3.7T — World Bank Indicators API · 2024 vintage. Forecast horizons are baseline values from the latest prediction run.
