Analysis · derived
Which economies are most risk-off right now? This ranks the whole covered universe by business-cycle phase — contraction and slowdown (risk-off) first — derived from the latest real GDP-growth level and momentum of each economy. No country code needed; each reading traces to the same live observed series the rest of the platform serves. Backward-looking, not a forecast.
Screen
Showing the 25 most risk-off of 215 covered countries, ranked by business-cycle phase.Showing every covered country, including micro-territories. Apply floor →
| # | Country | Phase | Growth % | Δ growth | Confidence | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| New Caledonia · NCL |
| ContractionStressed |
| -13.5 |
| −16.3 |
| High |
| 2024 |
| Brief → |
| 2 | Iran · IRN | ContractionStressed | -2.8 | −6.5 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 3 | Equatorial Guinea · GNQ | ContractionStressed | -5.8 | −6.2 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 4 | St. Lucia · LCA | ContractionStressed | -0.6 | −5.3 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 5 | Virgin Islands (U.S.) · VIR | ContractionStressed | -1.3 | −5.0 | High | 2022 | Brief → |
| 6 | Trinidad and Tobago · TTO | ContractionStressed | -0.8 | −3.3 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 7 | Mozambique · MOZ | ContractionStressed | -0.5 | −2.7 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 8 | Syria · SYR | ContractionStressed | -0.2 | −2.0 | High | 2022 | Brief → |
| 9 | Myanmar · MMR | ContractionStressed | -2.0 | −1.0 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 10 | Iraq · IRQ | ContractionStressed | -2.2 | −0.6 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 11 | Bolivia · BOL | ContractionStressed | -1.6 | −0.5 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 12 | Guyana · GUY | SlowdownElevated | 19.3 | −24.5 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 13 | Eritrea · ERI | SlowdownElevated | 3.8 | −9.2 | High | 2019 | Brief → |
| 14 | Turks and Caicos Islands · TCA | SlowdownElevated | 5.6 | −8.1 | High | 2024 | Brief → |
| 15 | Palau · PLW | SlowdownElevated | 6.3 | −5.7 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 16 | Venezuela · VEN | SlowdownElevated | 1.6 | −4.0 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 17 | Russia · RUS | SlowdownElevated | 1.0 | −3.9 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 18 | Brunei · BRN | SlowdownElevated | 0.7 | −3.4 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 19 | Lesotho · LSO | SlowdownElevated | 2.0 | −3.2 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 20 | Macao · MAC | SlowdownElevated | 4.7 | −3.2 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 21 | Belarus · BLR | SlowdownElevated | 1.3 | −3.0 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 22 | Puerto Rico (US) · PRI | SlowdownElevated | 0.3 | −2.9 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 23 | Dominican Republic · DOM | SlowdownElevated | 2.1 | −2.8 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 24 | Azerbaijan · AZE | SlowdownElevated | 1.4 | −2.7 | High | 2025 | Brief → |
| 25 | Bermuda · BMU | SlowdownElevated | 1.9 | −2.5 | High | 2024 | Brief → |
Ranked over the 215 countries we hold a live GDP-growth series for; uncovered economies never appear. Read the machine-readable ranking at GET /api/v1/screener/regime · or screen by macro stress on the macro-stress screener.
